Puru keeps posting bearish tweets.
20-50%???
Didn’t verify what he said.
If recession didn’t hit in Spring, Puru would start to learn EWT 
Recession = 2 quarters of negative GDP growth… we didn’t have a negative growth quarter yet. 3rd quarter GDP growth is 5.2%. So if winter quarter is not negative…
Puru plans to scoop up bargain…
post sell-off…
https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1738327998724727170
Disclosure: Own CRWD, NET, NVDA, SNOW and TSLA.
Observation: Portfolio of many Xers comprise mainly data stocks and fintech stocks.
Has anyone gotten wealthy buying bonds? Sure, people have done it managing bond portfolios of other people’s money. I don’t think anyone has become wealthy investing their own money in bonds though. Only looking at yield is foolish, since there’s also appreciation for stocks.
Bonds are bought by institutions and individuals for wealth preservation or wealth storage till they find better investment opportunity. The latter is what Puru is doing… wait for better prices to enter… meanwhile keep in T-Bills.
Puru reminding himself publicly.
After the disastrous 2022, Puru lost faith in buy n hold (his wrongly interpreted as buy once n hold) approach and dare not share his performance in public. So we no longer know his performance vs S&P.
2022 was only bad if he panic sold. If he actually held, the market is back at/near ATH. Claiming it doesn’t work because he panic sold is idiotic.
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Vaguely recalled he sold a lot before the start of decline, bought back in after 15-20% decline and held till another 50-60% decline. Dare not get fully back in at the bottom in Oct 2022, frequently switching stocks, panic sell, and start to scale back in when indices about to make new ATHs.
His problem is similar to Cathie Woods. Doesn’t believe in megacap and think they will be disrupted by newly listed disruptive high growth stocks. And that low market cap stocks would appreciate faster than megacap. Last few years show that megacap adapt fast and appreciate faster.
Megacap = above $100B
Also, he likes to chase hot stocks eg CELH, and hot favorites of social media influencers eg PYPL.
Indices not individual stocks esp high growth ones eg SNOW and NET are still very far below ATH.
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How can he claim he’s not trend following when all he did was following trend?
Buying Nikkei because it kept going up. Closing Tesla after it collapsed.
People who don’t believe in buy and hold generally have too high an opinion of themselves. The fact is a long time frame is all the edge a retail investor ever has. You can’t hope to develop a trading system to out trade funds with large teams of math and physics PhDs. But because these funds have to report performance every 3 months, they can’t sit on short term losses. This time horizon mismatch is the only advantage retail investors have.
To give up on this only edge and to chase short term trading profits is kinda foolish IMO. But trading based on numbers going up and down is less work than getting familiar with fundamentals. I guess that’s why many people do it.
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Sufficiently obvious. However, is everybody’s
AI: AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR
AV: AAPL, NVDA, TSLA
BioTech: NVDA, ARKG, CRSP
eCommerce: SHOP, SE
FinTech: AAPL, SQ, SOFI, SE
In support to above trends, other sectors are also important e.g. cybersecurity, data management. For these, I have…
Cybersecurity: CRWD, NET
Data management: PLTR, SNOW, NET
Is true but shouldn’t put all $$$ into those growth stocks… is arrogant to think you can identify the winners, IMHO, is a bet, not a sure win. So should put some $$$ into relatively “sure” winners e.g. Mag7 if don’t want to put into broad-based indices eg. SPY and QQQ.
Puru should qualify explicitly his view is from his experience investing in growth stocks. May not apply for other stocks esp benchmark stocks or broad-based indices. In fact, many stocks have hit ATH after ATH since 2023 and broad-based indices have hit ATH recently.
Take note, Cathie of ARK ETFs doesn’t believe in benchmark stocks. She thinks high growth innovative companies would disrupt the stalwarts… she is proven wrong for many years. She might have based her views on archived literature (like some1 here) and not updating her knowledge that modern companies and CEOs/founders are well read and know reasons for company failures e.g. not cannibalize your own products, not investing in potential moonshots, complacency (who moved my cheese), … Modern companies adapt fast and invest in moonshots aggressively e.g. Vision Pro for Apple, Metaverse for META, Gen AI for MSFT, …
