The forecasts are about moving the market rather than actual forecasting. The full forecast immediately gets priced in, rather than just the individual rate increase/decrease.
Personally I don’t think we’ll make it to 4%. The country is already in a recession. The labor market is rapidly weakening. Inflation is just food, energy and cars at this point.
I posted a job ad recently and received over 50 applicants in less than a week (heading into a holiday weekend no less). I had to fill a similar position in mid-2021 and received ~12 applicants (only one of them qualified) over the course of a month. Anecdotally the view from the ground is radically different than a year ago.