our neighbors (4bd. 2.5 bath with nice yard, listed 1.8) just sold to Opendoor (neighbor said sold for more than 1.8) as they got no offers after sitting on the market for 3 weeks. They had to close on their new house and needed the money.
it DOES need a lot of work but location desirable (Dublin, quiet neighborhood, easy access to 680/580 but away from highway noise, walkable to two starbucks and shopping.
Another evil of inflation and our inability to respond to it. Real estate shelters wealth and not people.
This argument does not make sense. Even if as homeowner has a fixed, low 3% mortgage rate, their stock portfolio is getting lowered thanks to interest rate hikes and all other items except housing and getting more expensive. So, their money is buying them less and less.
Eventually, housing prices will have to drop just like stocks because buyers just wonât be able to afford homes when all other expenses are going higher
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Pay of buyers could be going up as fast as expenses.
Middle class buyers. Rich buyers may continue to use real estate as an inflation shelter. Inflation clobbers the poor and lower middle class, whose financial life revolves around dollars, and ultimately makes the rich, whose wealth is in assets, richer at least in a relative sense.
In the Seventies stocks were clobbered and RE went up 3-10x
Inflation is good for RE. Bad for stocks. 1967-1982 stocks were down 3x due to inflation in constant dollars. This current time is very similar. Outside shocks to the systemâŚoil and commodity inflation⌠shortages. War. Civil unrest⌠poor governance and total lack of confidence in the governmentâŚterrible times. But RE thrived.
Right now there is a slow down / pause, and buyers are anxious about what is going to happen & watching for recession. Once something positive happens (say on the stock / fed easing up again) or buyers are pushed again due to school timeline, it will pull back (initially on good school neighborhoods)âŚ
The pullback will start from the areas that went up the most, not the laggards.
Condos are last to go up and the first to go down in price. Still going up in Tahoe
Good to know 
I love 10x 
15 yrs 10x means 16% CAGR, feasible.
I expect Real estate to get clobbered like stocks in next few months. Many speculative buyers/investors in last few years got in to make a quick buck. So many companies mushroomed to crowdsource investment in real estate. Real estate has essentially been treated just like another stock in hyper growth mode! (and we know what happened to those stocks recently)
This is a nightmare scenario for people in my position. If stocks are clobbered, it will impact my ability to pay off my mortgage more quickly than 30 years.
On the other hand, home price going up 3x or more from $3M to $10M + is meaningless unless one sells. And if one does sell, the transaction cost (esp capital gains tax) will be hugeâŚ,
I would rather that stocks go up and RE stays stagnant relatively
Cash out refi and pump into S&P index.
or a HELOC (given interest rates are higher)
@SVRE is a bit more conservative with his finances than many of us here. He wants to pla off his low rate mortgage early!
@caiguycaiguy, you are correct. I have a 7 figure mortgage, and since I re-fi last year into low fixed rate, it will take 30 years to pay off by which time I will be well into retirement. So, i donât want to add to debt at this time.
@hanera, my interest rate is 2.625%. If I do cash out refi then my loan will reset to 4.5%. Just not worth it
Historical return of S&P is 7-11% CAGR which is higher than 4.5%. Remember we are talking the scenario of S&P has crashed so CAGR should be higher than 7-11%.