Real Estate in Secular Uptrend

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Did you ask them about what happen to RE after dotcom bust? Ask them.

You just wonā€™t give up! Good luck waiting.

All of my RE inv friends are waiting with double digit hard cash at hand. There has never ever been so much dry powder waiting.

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agreed - stuff is sitting but still selling if priced reasonably - there are 2 Iā€™m watching though

this one was bought by flipper in March 2022 for God knows why and now after putting $$$ into it and listing it they have reduced price for what they bought it for - they are def losing $

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Danville/1398-Brookside-Dr-94526/home/1734514

This is another one that is outside range of active buyers so may be why they keep reducing price and who knows what was realistic in the first place

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Lafayette/3666-Happy-Valley-Rd-94549/home/1004052

Waiting last 2 months has already been proving to be very smart decision for my friends. It was difficult to hold them off. Now, they donā€™t need any further validation. I feel the next few months are going to be worse. I know prices will go up in the long run. That doesnā€™t mean you canā€™t save an extra 20% in the next few months.

Read somewhere prices need to come down by @22% for the same monthly mortgage payment for a rate of 3% vs 6%. Of course, this number will vary by local demand supply conditions.

I am not trying to do some theoretical research to find out why the prices are what they are. I am merely informing this group that I am seeing price cuts from the peak April prices. Why and how much more is for you all experts to debate. :grinning:

@Roy321, are you not seeing price drops in Fremont area? I mean from this springā€™s peak prices.

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are they really saving any $ though? I feel like with the rates going up the house costs the same loan wise as it did before, maybe youā€™re getting the property tax savingsā€¦

Yes property taxes and they can refinance in 2-3 years.

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In Austin, I observed 5-8% price decline from Apr-May ATH. Donā€™t have your example of 25% drop.

For example,

interest rates coming back down anytime soon is not guaranteedā€¦and people here are already buying at max affordability anyway so even if they end up saving $ later if they can refi they are def buying less house now based on interest rate

Buyers want to wait it out, they want to squeeze those sellers who absolutely need to sell. :slight_smile:

On the other side I donā€™t see inventory shooting up( I havenā€™t downloaded data to verify, just eyeballing numbers and listings).

So, this dance letā€™s see where it ends.

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That is my intention :smiling_imp:

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I think rates will certainly come down before the end of 2024 or in 2 years.

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interesting, I havenā€™t heard anyone saying that but we will seeā€¦

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J Powell had told first time buyers to wait to buy their houses as rate would decline in the future. However, he didnā€™t say would decline to 2-3% :slight_smile:

Spent sometime looking up really good comps to show that the drop is big. This is a good one I think since they are opposite homes.

Closed on june 13th:
https://redf.in/Yi3xAA

Closed on july 15th: much bigger home for $450k less in one month
https://redf.in/5JvDg5

There may be minor pluses and minuses in the homes but you get the idea.

Not Apple to Apple. One is a corner house.

Built in sqft of corner house listed as 16xx is not the same as city 1363. Why?

We will get July data in a couple of weeks. I honestly only know people who recently bought or are looking to buy. I donā€™t know anyone whoā€™s looking to sell. Inventory is going to remain very limited.

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