Real Estate in Secular Uptrend

They expanded that home recently. It’s possible city records were not updated.

CalculatedRisk is doing a really nice job of following inventory, new listing, YoY sales, price reductions etc. in a number of local markets. The latest update from July – look at Austin, Phoenix, Vegas…inventory is up 2–3x vs June of last year. Santa Clara County is up a little bit but nowhere near as bad. New listing on average are up 5% vs last year, so new houses are still coming onto the market at a similar frequency despite the increase in interest rates.

The headline is scary. The reality is:

“The annual rate of price appreciation fell two percentage points from 19.3% to 17.3%.”

“With a national shortage of more than 700,000 listings, it would take more than a year of such record increases for inventory levels to fully normalize,” said Graboske.

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About right. No more 40-60% annual growth rate :wink:

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In San Jose prices dropped by 5+% in June over May. It will be interesting to see July decline over June. If the decline accelerates, i.e. it comes out higher than June decline then it can be very disturbing.

5-10% is pretty normal each year. It’s really more about the yr/yr price change.

What, 10% price decline in a month is normal? Please share what you smoke.

5-10% decline from spring peak happens every year. The people smoking stuff are the ones expecting a 50% decline.

June was substantially weaker than normal this year (usually the seasonal price drop doesn’t kick in until fall). However, there has already been a bit of an uptick as rates have dropped in July. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year plays out.

@Jil This is pretty hilarious given what you’re saying now. Welcome to realizing what was obvious 4 weeks ago.

All I understand FED wants recession, of course they are telling they can avoid one, with high hypocritical way.

Even the recent meeting, FED members were not satisfied with inflation control. He said: Another Unusually Large Hike Depends on Data


Got the same feeling too. Runaway inflation is more damaging than a recession.

I think Fed means possibly won’t cause high unemployment.

What I guess what Fed is thinking…

Number of jobs more than people looking for jobs which lead to…
Wage spirals which lead to…
So Fed plan is…
Rate hikes which lead to…
Recession which lead to…
Lower demand for labor (less jobs) which lead to…
Dampening wage rise which lead to…
Dampening inflation which lead to…
More healthy economy and balanced employment.
The worry for us is the “balanced” employment may not work out, end up less jobs, high unemployment.

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Just look at when consumer sentiment tanked in March. Unemployment is at multi-decade lows. Yet, people were terrified because of inflation. I honestly still don’t get why people were more pessimistic than they were at peak Covid. I guess it makes some sense considering 60% have less than $2k saved. Their monthly budget is so tight that a little inflation sets them up to be accumulating debt each month.


Ok, that’s probably a lot of what’s causing anxiety and stress leading to negative sentiment.


Profile of those surveyed? Percentage of blue collar? None?
Inflation mostly due to energy and housing?

The Fed wants a recession. We are technically in a recession no matter what Biden says.

This guy in trying to sell at 25% higher price within 2 months of buying. No change in the home. Who says there is no more speculation in housing in Bay Area. Its well alive. Will be interesting to see how fast and for how much this sale closes.


Redfin predicts prices bottom in Dec/ Jan?

My friend at mountain house posted this price reduction, do not know address

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I reported seeing the prices weakening a few weeks ago and had to defend myself for speaking the truth. :joy:

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