That’s what I meant 
You’re so explicit. I prefer to be subtle. Most techies have no idea how to assess the value of a home. They tends to get sway by nice color scheme (lip stick) and modern style, overpaying for them like what you have quoted. You can slap a $100k remodeling and charged them for $500k.
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Do you ever go anywhere outside the Bay Area? Wow….
Yes. It seems like you are one of those highly leveraged Bay Area investor / owner. Just keep in kind that if cash flow of RE drops below Treasury yields, you are literally fighting gravity. Now combine that with bad demographics trends, layoffs, businesses leaving, homelessness, crime wave, work from home, stalled immigration and you are setup for disaster. Only thing that will avoid this is a complete Fed U turn, which is unlikely.
What satisfaction do you get from constantly predicting doom and gloom? It seems like a pretty miserable way to live. You aren’t using your predictions to position yourself to profit. Now you’re just another bear hoping others become less rich, so you feel better about yourself.
Now you’re comparing RE to treasuries? What’s the annual appreciation rate of treasuries?
No you got it all wrong. I am looking at it purely objectively. I am a long time RE investor looking to get positive yields my investment, not just paper appreciation.
Well in any case, you should know that this RE bubble is not good for most Bay Area residents and for the long term growth sustained economic growth of the Bay Area. A huge RE reset will make Bay Area livable again for everyone and will help local businesses greatly. I do not have much consolation to offer to the Bay Area tech slaves about evaporation of their paper wealth or to the leveraged speculative investors who made the Bay Area unaffordable to live.
Looks like a long time RE investor (non bay area, cash flow driven), feeling left out on the appreciation seen in Bay Area RE & hoping for a crash.
Bay area is livable, prospering, and will continue to prosper.
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Yes but after a big reset, as nothing can go up in straight line. Have you visited SF or downtown SJ recently. Homeless and filth everywhere.
If you want yield, the Bay Area is the wrong market for you. Detroit has great yields. Go buy there.
Tell me about this.
I know of 2 families who spent >50k each time on a bathroom model and a garage remodel without bothering to inquire about prices and being more conservative.
Another relative spent 600k expanding their house by about 400 sq ft,repainting, new floors etc. They could’ve asked around for better prices or done the work in chunks with different contractors but didnt bother to.
Zillow estimates are dropping very fast now.
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You make me check. Same as 5 days ago
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well one which I am tracking was 15% down @1 week back. Now it’s close to 20%.
Would you mind sharing what address?
Wondering is there an agenda to this fast dropping of estimate. At this rate, we are talking about 50% drop in price in one year.
I guess its their algorithms which is analyzing the recent list and sale prices. I doubt they rigged the algorithms for some hidden agenda but you never know. I also see that the Zestimate still remains stuck at the last sale price even though the sale occurred during April peak, which alludes me to believe they are not rigging the algorithms.
Last 30 days changes for some of the market I am monitoring:
Fremont -11%
Daly City -10%
Pflugerville (Austin) -6%
Palo Alto -6%
Atherton -4%
Charlotte +2%
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Prices have been falling since June in my view. So, total decline could be higher if summed up from June.
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I am seeing some ridiculous declines in San Jose, San Ramon, Dublin, Mountain House, Santa Clara, Campbell, Sunnyvale etc. By up tp 30%.
PA, LA, MV, are holding up okay, I am seeing <10% decline there…
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Definitely. But if we want actual data, it’s better idea to pull the average sold price data instead of random samples from Zillow though.
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