3x is probably cherry picked outlanders. Average was probably about 1.5x. In Tahoe we had 2x to 3x since 2012. The problem is so few house were sold in 2012 that the statistics aren’t very reliable. Probably at lot of houses with huge price gains were value add remodels.
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Ditto for IRA. It is super difficult for an IRA tax auditor to audit a superrich Mr T whose tax return is prepared by a top notch tax accountant (or a group of accountants). Who do you think they would audit? Who are the low hanging fruits?
Places in danger of deeper than national average correction are:
- Zoom towns e.g. Boise, East Bay, …
- iBuyers towns e.g. Phoenix, Las Vegas, …
- Tech hubs e.g. SF, SJ, …
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Dollar is at parity with the Euro. Forget stocks and RE go on a European vacation. 20% off sale.
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FED is not working for you or you are not in FED members. Will you become a president and change the FED members the way you want them work?
It is easy to scold or comment anyone like the way media talked about Warren Buffet that he is wasting money with Treasury etc.
It is just waste of time, responding such. Good Luck.
Fed has a very clear mandate. Achieving price stability (2% based on their definition) and full employment (5% unemployment). Both are very objective criteria. And everyone knows where we are and what they have been doing.
And even more:
- They have been lying about inflation, first denying it, then calling it transitory and now even calling it good.
- They are even lying about recessions, creating a new definition.
- They are also lying about QT, they said they will start QT in June. Fed was supposed to sell $30B Treasuries and $17.5B Mortgage-Backed Securities per month starting June 1. During June, MBS holdings rose almost $3 billion. Treasury holdings fell less than $10B.
If you cannot see how corrupt they are, you are one of them or are insane.
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I was sounding the inflation alarm over a year ago. Some on this forum called me a right wing scare monger. I think the Fed caused the inflation spiral, just like Greenspan caused the 2006-9 financial crisis with loose money policy. Now however it is a balancing act. How to bring down inflation without tanking the economy and driving the rest of the world into a 1998 financial meltdown. If the Euro goes to 80 USD cents they will have a major recession.
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When children get a flu shot, any nurse tells them it is going to pain you?
Since 1913 which FED was not lying?
Since 1913 which FED told that they will be recession?
Even many people in their day to day activities lie - by virtue of holding such positions.
All I infer from your talk, looks like you left the RE boat sometime back, eagerly waiting for a drastic correction so that you can pick up some.
Unfortunately, real estate jumped like TSLA stock not catchable later on…
Also note, bay area is not good for rent any more, it is only appreciation which can be realized after sale only.
Anyway, tired of going through this endless cycle.
This is my end of this topic.
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Weekend coming.
Austin weather has changed from over 100F days to below 90F raining days.
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We are not children. All we want is truth and transparency and there is no excuse for not providing that.
And by the way once upon a time Fed was more honest than today. Once upon a time there was Paul Volker. Once upon a time, our debt was not doubling in two years. Once upon a time our currency was backed by gold.
Fed ethics has stooped to next lows, first in 2008 and then in 2021. No wonder there is no credibility left. Just like US Govt.
So you trust corporate like MSFT GOOG META?
Yes I trust them for their purpose which is to maximize their shareholder value.
US Govt.'s purpose is different and Fed’s purpose is different and they no longer work for their purpose but rather for the highest bidder.
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Our currency is the strongest in the world thanks to the FED. The rest of the world should be terrified if the Fed funds rate goes over 4%. Stocks will get hurt also…
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Strong currency is bad for exporters.
Sharing interesting analysis, looks like prolonged low interest (less than 3.5%) locked housing supply
Actually Russia’s currency is the strongest in the world right now. It’s more than doubled against the dollar since February and has made even stronger gains against the Euro.
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When Will the Housing Market Crash?
Reasonably argued.
TL;DR version: Buy as Primary 
Buy as investment 
Demand > Supply so LT 
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The North Texas housing market is downshifting quickly, with Dallas-Fort Worth being the only U.S. market to see a decrease in home sale prices last month, according to a report released today.
DFW home prices are down 1.9% year over year in July, according to the latest [Re/Max National Housing Report](RE/MAX National Housing Report for July 2022).
In hard numbers, home sales prices in DFW fell to $413,900 in July from $422,000 in July 2021.
https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2022/08/19/dallas-home-prices-drop-remax-zillow.html
Correct. Rarely we see such posts either in stocks or real estate giving us balanced discussion.
Investors need to choose such reasonable posts so that they see reality rather than perma bull or perma bear (esp for stocks).