@45% loss from today? Do you think the scale of the recession(if it happens) is the same as 2008? It seems unlikely, i.e. the depths of the recession as bad as 2008.
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It can actually be worse because debt levels are much higher this time, as well as inflation. The fact that US is a falling empire and Chine is the challenger makes the matter worse along with decline in USD influence.
US economy has been ruined by last full decade of zero interest. It is no longer strong and competitive able to compete at global scale without life support by Fed. Warren Buffet once said interest rates are like gravity to asset values and economy. You live too long in zero gravity and your bones and muscles will be so weak that you will crumble in even slight gravity. Thatâs what happened to the US economy.
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My assumption is based on this comparison. In 2007, the drop was 20.3%, now 24.5%, retrace 14.65%, now 18.95%.
See in 2007 second drawdown is harsh, more than (14.65+20.3) 34.95. With FED aggressive rate hikes and excess inflation which makes them aggressive, I assume similar retrace like 2007, i.e., either 24.53+18.95 = 43.48 (appx 45%) or (2*18.95) 37.9%.
The recession wave behaves like this normally. Elliott Corrective ZigZag wave behaves like this.
BTW: Future is unpredictable and my guesstimate calculation may be 100% wrong. This is posted for discussion purpose, not to scare any one.
S T A Y - W I T H - Y O U R - D E C I S I O N S !
Never Believe anything I predict. It is worthless. Personally, I am a pure trader, never bothered to predict long term future as I strongly believe escape from any big drops. I do not have any attachment with any stocks or bullish run or bearish run, but making use of opportunity to buy low and sell high.
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Did WB say that? I didnât follow the old man that closely.
From RE to S&P confuses me.
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You keep repeating the debt thing.
Iâm confused. The economy is collapsing, but you also say supply canât keep up with demand. If the economy was collapsing, then demand would collapse.
You really donât believe anything you say. If you did, then youâd sell everything and wait until after the crash to buy again.
Itâs happening because the gap between Americans standard of living and rest of the world is closing. Thatâs the root cause.
Second is because USD dominance is over. US canât print to wealth anymore. Any printing would come with inflation and without printing US will keep sinking.
Have you looked at the amount of government debt in Europe and China?
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100% right.
100% Wrong. I have been hearing such troll during 2000 and 2008 and now again.
You or me or anyone here do not have any power to change the economy. Powerful people are taking decision and we need to position ourselves to safeguard our investment & grow.
You completely fail to understand one thing and talking as if you are like Trump (when President of USA)! You are talking all out of your domain (you do not have any control on USG or FED) topics.
Warren Buffett said when the tide goes out you find out who is swimming naked. The naked aka crypto memes and all high leveraged no profit investments are being slaughtered at the trough ⌠Powell is not concerned about those folks.
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US Govt is also swimming naked.
Europe yes, China not so mush, they generate so much income that they can easily take on any amount of debt. Have you seen their trade surplus. A healthy household with high income is expected to have high debt. On the other hand a loss making household is not expected to have any debt else they will keep sinking.
These things take time. It took decades for British Empire to sunset. So did Dutch, and Spanish empires. It may take another decade or a few for American empire.
The signs of the American dominance collapse is now more and more clear. Go read Ray Dalioâs latest book.
Actually the British Empire was ended in 1941-1942 by the Japanese in 100 days. Much more devastating than Pearl Harbor. And soon after India became independent in 1948. Unfortunately for the US we have been trying to prop up European colonial interests for the last 70 years much to our detriment. I think the biggest cause of American decline has been the military spending trying to be the worlds policeman. We need to spend that money on economic development on the home front.
As far as China, their paranoia over Covid-19 is destroying their economy. They are no longer a reliable trading partner. The US and others will onshore manufacturing and or find other countries to produce low cost goods. Plus their RE market is collapsing.
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Not in your and my life term ! Waste of time with such trolls.
Read Ray Dalio blabber long time before ! No real substance, useless cycles which I know how to take care of my self from doom and gloom.
While you quote Ray Dalio book, did you know where he is invested ? Major US stocks.
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You guys donât understand economics 101.
If my wife and I start to trade our house junk with each other for millions of dollars and start claiming we are worth millions while not generating any real net income and ratcheting up credit card bill month after month to maintain fake wealthy lifestyle, what will happen in the end?
This is the situation of West. Negative net income (trade deficit) and sky high paper wealth (Bitcoin, corporations on life support, fake stock market, fake real estate market, etc.) and growing debt levels. This will only end in one way.
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Good Luck !
Same old Pandey, all new account
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