How useful are equity gains unless it is time to downsize? Selling to buy another property is just buying something else that’s also gone up. It’s the illusion of progress.
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Anything that is imported or depends on imported commodity will continue to rise due to shrinking gap between US and rest of the world.
Things that are entirely produced in US may actually become cheaper due to less demand and recession.
My thesis of 40-50% SFH price crash specifically in Bay Area is becoming increasingly more probable with every passing day.
High interest rates, QT, recession, tech layoffs, tech stock crash (due to high interest rate), Bay Area and CA declining population, and no Fed to the rescue are all going to happen together, fun times ahead.
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Have to assume is an investor.
My point is “record equity gains” + “bought at low mortgage rate” are not sufficient reasons for investors to hold. There has to be more reasons. Cash has way more options e.g. take advantage of the bearish stock market. And if market crashes by 50% as @REInv suspects…
I am 100% convinced REinv = BH, no doubt and no response.
I just bought tires. 30% more than two and half years ago
But CPI is only 9%
Special items have gone a lot more than cpi. Rents too
Agree, for primary it’s a big loss if you sell to buy another primary, unless you HAVE to move(for any reason- new city, much better school) etc. Although, if one doesn’t sell to move up, with the savings one can probably send kids to private schools.
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I talked to buyinghouse. He is doing well. His son is in college. He felt too much hostility on this forum. He definitely is not Reinv
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Various estimates put the current inflation rate in the mid teens if calculated the same way it was in the early 80’s.
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Good to know he is doing fine. Thank you.
No one mentions me… maybe I’m too noncontroversial.
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I checked on u!
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Yes. I appreciate it!
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Influencers think the decline which started in Apr-Jun would take a few years (just like 2008-2011 GFC) to bottom. During GFC, I recall the initial drop is very sharp, a DCB and then take more than a year to bottom. Catching the falling knife in 2009 wasn’t that bad. That’s what I think Kevin is thinking. That’s Q1 2023 is a good time to buy… no need to wait for the bottom.
Remember, not trying to be political, I was telling Biden term would run like copy Obama term.
Think about series of events happened during 2008-2016, we will have at least 75% of that effect now. Multiple corrections may occur like a wave one after the another 2-3 years like 2008 and then 2011.
I would suggest wait for stock market bottom, then 3-6 months timeframe. FED control is really harsh for economy, and it takes time to reflect to real estate. We have not seen real effect
Note: This is not real estate downturn, but may be similar to 1975 oil embargo affecting inflation.
When is it?
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That’s what I said. Low of 2011 is not much lower than 2009 low.
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I do not know when, but simulating 2007-2009, I just have guesstimate of S&P between 2200 and 2400.
IMO, after sep increase , FED won’t be able to increase any more rates.
The drop from here , based on 2007-2009, should be sharp and it can reach between Oct-Dec or even mar 2023.
Please note above is alarming ( many hate me saying ) and everything is guess and can be 100% wrong.
Do not make any financial or investment decisions based on above statements.