Real Estate in Secular Uptrend

I knew lots of people who bought in 2005, it was only like 7 years before they were net positive not 17…what area were they buying in? I feel like most places esp in Bay Area are positive as long as you can hold onto property for 7 years.

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Huge difference in return.

SV: I bot in 2007 and 2011. CAGR for 2007 is 5.3%, for 2011 is 10.1%. Paid more for 2007 yet worth less than 2011.

Timing affects return. CAGR of Austin properties vary from 12%-28%. Huge difference.

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Ha ha ha ! Now you see “Timing is important than TIME IN”.

You see why Warren Buffet keeps 150B cash when bull run period and spends 100B when stocks were down!

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True but timing is extremely hard because to be patient is extremely hard.

Once in 2 years we are getting 20% or more down. I see 2009, 2011, 2018, 2020 and 2021-2023

Just make a point that you buy only after seeing S&P when it comes down below 18%. Until then, DD good companies and wait for opportunity.

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Looks like down 20% twice this year very likely. The next low will be lower than June.

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Rents are leveling off . But ask prices are still very high. At least 20% higher than last year…largest inventory I have seen. Many are just looking for short term high rents at high season. VRBO incognito to get around vacation rental ban.

https://www.zillow.com/south-lake-tahoe-ca-96150/rentals/?searchQueryState={"pagination"%3A{}%2C"usersSearchTerm"%3A"96150"%2C"mapBounds"%3A{"west"%3A-120.164107%2C"east"%3A-119.877248%2C"south"%3A38.729776%2C"north"%3A39.067489}%2C"regionSelection"%3A[{"regionId"%3A98663%2C"regionType"%3A7}]%2C"filterState"%3A{"sort"%3A{"value"%3A"days"}%2C"ah"%3A{"value"%3Atrue}%2C"fr"%3A{"value"%3Atrue}%2C"fsba"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}%2C"fsbo"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}%2C"nc"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}%2C"cmsn"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}%2C"auc"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}%2C"fore"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}}}

I own a similar but nicer unit to this… $2100m, bought last year. Good tenant… will not raise his rent this year. I was going to buy this one but I would have had to spend $30k to get to the condition like mine. This out of the area owner just redid the floors. Basically original 1962 condition. Hope she gets her price, but it’s doubtful.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3344-Sandy-Way-APT-10-South-Lake-Tahoe-CA-96150/18578391_zpid/

No kidding. My La Honda house - bought in '89 for 245k (265?), sold in 2012 for $275k and then again in 2018 for $545k with few upgrades (mostly window replacements and a floor furnace).

Russian builder in Tahoe. Building unique modern rustic

https://www.redfin.com/CA/South-Lake-Tahoe/1142-Lone-Indian-Trl-96150/home/167074379

@hanera says skate where the puck is going.

That has the full rankings of the top 20.

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I like Minneapolis. It has a great downtown and in a climate change world, plenty of access to water and food. Diverse set of companies headquartered there too.

Have you been there in winter? That’s hibernation weather. I grew up in Michigan, and the winters are warm compared to Minnesota.

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Isn’t that true for most western cities. They all freeze in winter. Cold cities on average are much more developed than warm cities, globally and boasts much higher per capita income and standard of living.

Minneapolis is colder than Moscow or even Toronto. In fact most Canadians experience warmer weather. Tahoe feels tropical compared to its 40 below weather. Average high temp in Tahoe in January is 42. 22 in Minneapolis.

Never believe media as they twist the statistics!

They did not give median price! What they say is:

If a city noise has 100 house on sale and 70 houses reduced one dollar price reduction, they say Boise is 70% reduced and listed at top.

Media twist anything to make it attractive for readers.

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I know, just sharing to keep track of all metrics whether useful or not

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