Real Estate in Secular Uptrend

Okay.

Sellers can delay selling by renting. However, at some point, those that need the money will have to sell. However, buyers always have the option of renting

1 Like

Yes sellers holding out will end up chasing the market down. Next year will begin the bloodbath. Sellers cannot fight the Fed and papa Jerome who made up his mind to pop the RE bubble.

The decking looks worn and it’s too cold for snakes :slight_smile:

Most of us consider that a good thing. No snakes on my farm. We have a feral cat that murders everything from squirrels to snakes. Both my neighbors across the street have found rattlesnakes

1 Like

Why did 10 yr yield fall sharply today? I see higher probability of 75bp rate hide in Fed monitor tool. Yields are falling for last few days or going sideways.

I know a guy outside San Diego. His 15 acres are his own personal wildlife sanctuary. Every cat he sees on his property gets a 22 to the head. If it has tags it gets thrown in the nearest street to be run over a few times before word gets back to the owner. The idea is the owner will learn to keep their next cat indoors.

.

PhD Peng has a clue.

Does not add up. Oil is up meaning higher inflation means higher rates. TSLA is down but has no relationship. Stocks are up meaning higher inflation and higher rates. UK has no hope left but is unrelated. I do not see any reason, whatsoever.

Or else you have no clue what’s going on. Living in the macro world you’re in your own personal hell. RE is local. It’s something that the small time investor can beat the odds, it’s like a stock investor having insider knowledge, but legal. In Eldorado County houses still sell below replacement cost. Entitled land permits fees hard and soft costs ad up to $400/sf minimum. I bought my farm at $125sf at $750k. Currently worth $1.2 m. Replacement cost including land would ge $2-3m even if the land was free. Definitely very few homes under construction and demand from BA area refugees with cash keep coming. As long as demand increases and construction costs go up prices will hold steady or go higher. Construction costs never go down. Wages and prices are going up due to inflation. I have 5500sf including the garage 2 units and a main house. $750k now would get you 1800sf starter track house in Folsom on a postage stamp lot. Or a 20 year old tract house less than 2500sf.
RE is not paper money like stock.

1 Like

You can’t farm without killing critters. Cats are most efficient killers. our cat came with property knows how to live off the land. Dogs are needed too to keep out bigger varmints. But dogs are stupid around snakes. They have to be vaccinated against snake bites or they will die in my county. We have turkeys, starlings finches raccoons skunks deer bears …. All will eat my grapes. Foxes coyotes and mountain lions don’t eat grapes but kill my neighbors livestock and chickens. It’s a battle being a farmer.

1 Like

I have neighbors at my desert property. They have dogs. None have been vaccinated for snakebite even though the place is full of diamondbacks. Stupid dogs die; smart ones live. Rattler bites left untreated are 80% survivable for a medium sized dog. Higher for larger breeds. First bite is enough to work the stupid out of most dogs. And the rattlers feed on all the smaller varmints. Smart dogs keep the coyotes away from the rest of your stuff.
Of course no one grows grapes in the desert.

Peacock or peahen will not leave the snakes to live in their territory.

That’s a myth. My friend in Pilot Hill has found 24 rattlesnakes in the 10 years with peacocks that have naturalized on his property. The snakes even bit his dog. He needs a cat.

Good Lord. Naturalized peacocks? Those things scream their heads off.

Yup, the sky is falling. Sell fast!

  • Black Knight, a real estate software, data and analytics firm, reported the second straight month of declines in August, with prices down 0.98% from July.
  • CoreLogic also released a home price report this week that showed home prices in August still 13.5% higher than August 2021.
  • Prices are off their peaks in 97 of the 100 largest U.S. markets, but they’re still roughly 40% higher than they were in 2019, before the pandemic, Black Knight says.