This does not mean denial of price drop! Do you understand the meaning denial of price drop?
No denial , my take in still same. I said max drop can be 20%, but actual May be 12% - 15% and definitely not more than 20% MEDIAN price ( not biased your own price )
I justified how, you do not understand and you do not want to understand.
In fact you do not want hear that as you are fixated by 50% drop which is not going to happen in my life term.
You may be one among the permabears on real estate who did not buy anything in the past, now trying to see a drop of 50% so that your scared move of not buying home is justified.
Having seen this bay area real estate market, it does not work like that even during recession.
You missed is missed, never will get that in future.
Someone actually put statistics to what many here are saying. Current owners are far more qualified with higher credit scores than the Great Recession.
ARM which had a higher default rate in the Great Recession are a much smaller % of loans than they were then.
Btw, donât be too quick to conclude that RE wonât decline (in % term) as much as GFC.
Since I donât have a price chart, I would base on memoryâŚ
Trough (2004?) to Peak (2007), % increase is about 40%.
Peak (2007) to Trough (2011), % decrease is about 20%.
Currently,
Trough (2011) to Peak (2022), % increase is 210%.
Peak (2022) to Trough (202x), what should be the % decrease?
There have been very few buyers on this forum for years. Not any sellers either. Seems to be mainly a stock promotion vehicle. Even though stocks have been a horrible investment this year. Those of us that bought RE years ago or have rental properties are still looking at higher rents. Maybe this house price âcrashâ is real but most in this forum will see it as a buying opportunity⌠meaning that prices wonât drop as far as some predict.
Publicly traded corporate landlords are reporting some of their highest margins ever, while smaller operators say rent increases are eaten up by costs.
We crossed June lows. There were many deniers on this too.
RE will follow, another year and it will be cut into half from ATH as Fed keeps raising rates as CPI keeps rising. Inflation report came bad. People are still leaving Bay Area. Population decline over 2 years is 6%. Layoffs accelerating. Earnings dropping - even blue chip like Apple and Nike are getting hit. @Jil is enjoying hot sand around his head.
I understand you are one of the persons who do not invest in stocks, Seeing stocks going down, you are very happy as it justifies your move not to invest.
Stocks going down or up is an event to help increase my asset position (volatility is my friend, but not an enemy). Read all my threads you will understand.
But for others, they look at you differently.
BTW: On any case, you wonât understand what I am telling you !
I do invest in stocks - normally 75% in RE and 25% in stocks (no bonds). However, I had sold all (yes all) stocks late last year (good timing yay) and have good amount of dry powder looking to get into RE after 50% crash. And will keep buying some stocks with new income. Stocks will recover faster than RE btw.
