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He also added…
“None of this [the ongoing housing correction] affects the longer run issue, which is that we got a built-up country and it’s hard to get zoning and hard to get housing built in sufficient quantities to meet the public’s demand,” Powell. “There’s a longer run housing shortage.”
Secular uptrend is intact.
Just use reader 
in Safari.
Not necessarily.
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1604910995654250497?s=20&t=IscKL7LjR3osrPwx0mfKwQ
Based on this trend, we are heading to be a renter’s nation. Big Single Family Homes in suburbs will be the days of past. I know pandemic brought back suburbs in fashion but demographic and social trends do not support this trend, long term.
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1604911951456489472?s=20&t=U3kzbBl-kpUS6ZL0IBdchQ
How do you explain this with so many millennial, gen Z waiting to buy home?
Nick himself says at the end immigration might fill up but in main metros. I think certain locations will be safe.
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There is a reversal but too early to tell. Is not steady state yet.
Aging… has been said for decades but we live longer Also…
The younger metros would be ok… Avoid Florida, well documented that retirees go there.
Yes we live longer but can’t raise family past certain age. Humans reproduction mechanism hasn’t changed.
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Are you thinking of the generation after gen z? The people refer to in the “aging” problem are not expected to make babies.
The point is houses are not released to the market for a longer time than expected. Is why all predictions that aging means many houses would be released to the supply didn’t happen.
The secular uptrend thesis is:
Millennials are in prime formation of families and gen z is about to start. Population of Gen z is larger than millennials. So demand for houses for the next 20-30 years should be high. Meanwhile elderly are living longer and longer so not many houses are released for these new families. Need many new construction but developers are not building much.
US life expectancy has increased by less than a year over the last two decades. So this “we’re living longer” business isn’t really true.
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Answered long ago in this thread.
Most of the old people downsize after retiring. So inventory will be released. Nick argues that we have too many homes given the demographic trends. I do believe that even though we have adequate or surplus homes the homes in desirable good climate area will always be in demand.
The aging migrants from the BA are downsizing to cheaper areas like Sacramento MSA San Diego Palm Springs Mexico Arizona. I have been investing in Sacramento area for 25 years. Trend is still continuing. Plus many are moving here that WFH. There may be some bargains coming but the long term trend is bullish for housing for areas from Sacramento to Reno.
For anyone who claims shortage of new construction. Given that US population is no longer growing like 20, 30, or 40 years ago, we have historically high number of constructions going on.
No wonder you have such a incorrect view. Just look a the graphic on the size of each generation. Until you can understand equations with multiple variables, you’re just going to look silly.
Today denier, tomorrow furious, depressed the day after.
You’re probably one of the 2010 bears back under a different name. I laughed at those ones too.
Nope, I bought a ton of RE 7-8 years ago and they are doing extremely well now. But world is not linear and nothing goes in straight line. But people with little common sense do not understand this. Common sense is uncommon.
Hardly any apartments being built in South Lake Tahoe. Besides that families only want sfhs which are being built at historic lows nationwide .
People forget that 1% of housing becomes derelict or unlivable every year. We aren’t even building enough to replace the old junk… let alone building for all the new families that will be formed in the next few years. There is an extreme housing shortage in coastal California cities. People living with roommates or on the streets. Anyone who thinks we have a housing glut is an idiot in denial.
Imagine it all the roommates in the Bay Area could afford their own home. Literally dozens of thousands of potential buyers waiting for the 50% off bargains that will never happen.
Inventory is only 83 sfhs in South Lake Tahoe. Down from over 200 last summer and the average of 250.
Right, so instead of enjoying all your gains, you come here and argue why your assets are going to crash in value. That sounds fun.
Because I have been accumulating dry powder and patiently waiting for housing crash 2.0.
