…to complete 
since it has already started. Some zip codes in Austin has declined 25-30% from Jun ATH.
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That’s right but I’m still on the fence. Don’t want to catch a falling knife. I will start buying once I see prices start to rise for at least 2-3 months. May take 2 quarters, 1 year or 2-3 years.
5% treasuries yield on dry powder is good.
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Is 2-3 months sufficiently long? Every time mortgage rate declines a little, I see houses start closing. I recall prices hit a low in 2009, peak in 2010 and hit another low in 2011 before re-bouncing. I recall the uptrend from 2009 to 2010 last almost one year. The bottom between 2009 and 2011 is sbout 1.5-2 years apart.
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The bottom occurred in PA in 2009. In Tahoe in 2012. Who knows this time.
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Given the rate of decline, I suspect the 90 day moving average national price will decline quite substantially by mid / end of 2023. 25-30% decline perhaps. Bay Area for sure will see 50% decline from May peak. After this kind of decline I doubt we will see a double dip. But who knows.
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NYC RE is very sensitive to the woes of Wall Street. So far this is only a stock recession… looks like a rough ride for NYC and environs. Hasn’t infected main street yet.
This is the sixth consecutive month of home value decline in the San Francisco metro. The area has now seen a 6.2% drop in home values from the peak recorded in May. That’s the biggest decrease in that time frame among the 20 largest U.S. metros. The Phoenix metro has the second largest home value decline of 4.5% from May to November, followed by San Diego and Los Angeles where home values both went down 4.2%.
Still, even with the continued decline, the San Francisco metro remains the most expensive out of the 20 largest metros, and the second largest among all metros analyzed.
By contrast, the Miami metro area had the biggest increase in home values of 8.5% among the 20 largest metros, going up to about $440,000 in May to $478,000 in November. Tampa had the second largest jump of 4.5%, followed by Philadelphia with a 3.7% home value spike.
The San Jose metro, which includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties, has seen values bounce back slightly over the past few months, but values are still down 5.1% from their peak in May. The San Jose metro continues to be the most expensive metro in the U.S. out of all the areas analyzed by Zillow.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/realestate/article/bay-area-home-prices-17670333.php
Lie. One should literally ban these fake news agencies.
In San Francisco, The median price of single-family houses sold in November in San Francisco plunged by 11.4% from October to $1.50 million, and by 27% from the peak in April, according to the California Association of Realtors.
SFChronicle uses the word typical home price.
Uses Zillow index data
CAR uses the word median home price.
Uses it’s own/CAR data?
You’re right the data don’t match, maybe some of the reasons are what I have pasted above?
Is why I prefer to track price of a few houses in a neighborhood.
Average is no good for obvious reason. Nobody use this.
Median is affected by mixture. For example, declining median doesn’t mean prices of houses are declining, could mean many lower priced houses are transacted.
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I think average has fallen more than median.
I see a clear trend across the board: falling prices and rising rents. That’s the path to higher cap rate. Given the Fed rate cap rates need to double so a long way to go.
Winners from this carnage:
- People with positive cash flow properties and 30/15/7 yr fixed mortgage rate.
- People with cash (yielding 5%).
Rest will lose their shirt and those on leverage will also lose pant.
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Easy to solve. Get rid of the building department. Relax zoning.aka Houston and allow the enterprise spirit of Silicon Valley to let builders be innovative and forward thinking. Forget all the crap the city has layered on the building industry in the last 50 years
Millennials replacing children with pets. Married childless ones are by far the most likely to have pets. Don’t know how this bodes for real estate. Are landlords more likely to object to a dog than a child?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/12/30/american-pet-spending/
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Notice this since… 1-2 decades ago?
In Tahoe everyone has a dog. Pretty much have to rent to them. Definitely for sfhs. Apartments can be dicey especially with barking aggressive dogs. Almost all my tenants smoke pot. Impossible to enforce non smoking rules. And worst they are all entitled. One has an email address of post exodus Saint… lol
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You’re not selling being a landlord in Tahoe! I guess the cap rate has to be higher to compensate for the liability of both the pets and the tenants…
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True. But pot smoking dog owners are the majority of Gen y and z. Welcome to the new world where people would rather smoke pot and hang with their dogs than be in the real world of relationships and family. I actually discussed this with my pot smoker idiot 21 year old tenant. He actually believes his dogs understand and agrees with whatever he says. No matter that he is an idiot and his girlfriend left him because he is an idiot. When I asked him if his dogs ever talked back he didn’t get the irony, the current generation thinks you can just Twitter bullshit or text crap and basically not have an intelligent conversation discussing issues. Talking to your dog is much easier… even if it craps on your rug in response because it knows you’re an idiot.
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