Yes what you say is true. I didn’t arrive at a conclusion based on one instance but was just citing it on how some ppl are out of reality. I see the same in blind too.
We can’t generalize everything, in my view most of people(irrespective of region) who bought home pre-pandemic and re-financed to sub 3’s of interest rate are comfortable with Monthly payments even with income of 250k and above (total house hold). But buying now with these high interest rate and prices bloated even with House hold income of 500k is painful.
Housing is still posting yr/yr gains.
May-July 2023 range will show the real yr/yr numbers.
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15% more to go and we are at 50% Bay Area RE price crash that practically everyone so called experts here denied. I won’t be surprised if prices fall further than 50% like 60+%, to same as 2011, because literally every fundamental is against Bay Area RE.
Anecdotally rent is weakening in some zip codes of Austin MSA.
My original plan is to buy one in Mar. Hesitating now, prices have firm a bit probably due to Spring effect, with rent declining, numbers still can’t work.
Gross rent yield is about 5-6%, lower than the mortgage rate. No $ to pay for property management + repairs and maintenance of the rental.
End of 2023 or end of 2024 if you have patience are must better times to buy any RE. I was originally planning to begin pulling trigger starting March too but its now clear we are far from bottom.
I am also very reluctant to invest in Bay Area anymore because Bay Area has a lot of room to fall, even 80% fall from peak will still keep it overpriced compared to many other equally good regions. Anti Business and anti landlord CA policies will make things worse.
May be my next investment destination will be a tech city in deep red state so I am well diversified politically. TX and FL may turn blue btw.
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So funny to see this as the next tech wave starts to emerge: AI.
You will now proceed to badmouth AI and tell us all how it’s overhyped, etc. Bay Area real estate and a bunch of other things are going to ride this wave back up.
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Well first you guys denied and claimed that Bay Area RE cannot decline, may be by 10% at most and here we are with 35% decline within 9 months and expected to continue to fall as rates keep pushing higher, layoffs keep rising, tech pay start falling off the cliff, and stocks stay frozen (and still highly overvalued). It’s impossible to argue sense with a denier.
Rise of remote work was the death knell to Bay Area RE.
AI is real and btw its not a new phenomena. Everyone knew all along that AI will cause the biggest disruption. But how does it affect tech employment situation in Bay Area is still to be seen. May be we won’t need as many engineers given that 80% of Bay Area engineers do mundane work that AI can easily replace and they are not smart enough to pick up high caliber work. The biggest beneficiary of AI are the consumers of tech so growth would probably happen in other places, like Los Angeles, or New York City.
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Way ahead of you sold out of the BA in 2015
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Toll Brothers — The homebuilding stock added 2% in extended trading following a better-than-expected earnings report. The company also said it has seen a rise in demand since the start of 2023.
I see similar drops on Zerodown for entire Bay Area, but I don’t see the same magnitude mid-peninsula. Maybe down 20% here
.
Zero downpayment?
Both of you could be correct 
or wrong 
Need to be clear we are talking about the same thing…
Median price, average price, price fluctuation of a specific house, comparison of similar houses, …
I prefer price fluctuation of a specific house using Redfin/Zillow estimate 
since actual transactions are seldom available, should use if available.
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I never said it could not decline. I said it has gone down in the past and bounced back up and I expect the same thing here.
Second, innovation is not typically “a new phenomena”. Smartphones existed before iPhone. Social networks existed before Facebook. Search existed before Google. Online shopping existed before Amazon. AI is going to be profound and we are going to need more people to explore the possibilities, not less.
The argument that AI is going to mean the need for less SWEs is reminiscent of the argument 15 years ago that outsourcing to India was the end of Silicon Valley. Tech can continue to grow and become more fundamental.
Feb 2022-2023 data.
Prices across the five core Bay Area counties are down between about 5% and 10% compared to this time last year, and around 25% to 35% under their all-time high in May.
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Tesla is expanding in the BA. The BA will be the center of AI.
The king is dead line is a bit premature.
Rents for single-family homes, which had also increased sharply before last summer, now are stalling, too. The average national asking rent for a house rose just one buck in January, compared with December, to reach $2,070, according to data provider Yardi Matrix.
2nd phase of house price declines have begun. House prices would bottom together with rent decline bottom.