Real Estate in Secular Uptrend

OT: prices in Korea is collapsing fast. Not surprisingly since property 3x over 5 years… high interest rate and oversupply… also… wait for it, use to be interest only mortgage payment (and repay full at the end of the lease) and government changes it to PI mortgage repayment.

The further away from Seoul, the faster the price decline.

Start of foreclosure of multi family and commercial building operators.

OT: Rush of American, European, Russian and Chinese money into Bali has caused prices to go bonkers. Apparently, Bali accepts payment in bitcoin :slight_smile:

Bali is great to visit but the climate would be oppressive year round. Tremendous humidity to go with the heat. Also, lots of rain.
A German friend of mine loved it. I acclimated after a few days but still wouldn’t want it year round. Plus getting on the roads with about a million 125cc mini scooters and no concept of lanes also takes getting used to. And the Hindi’s moving their Gods through the streets in huge traffic snarling processions. They sort of swap the idols around between temples or so I was told.

The current rental market is experiencing a period of oversupply, which is leading to a decrease in rental prices. The construction of new apartment buildings has been increasing, resulting in a surge in the number of available rental units.

While this may be good news for renters looking for affordable housing, it presents challenges for landlords and property owners who are facing increased competition for tenants. To attract and retain tenants, property owners must offer competitive pricing and additional amenities that stand out from their competitors.

Only thing that matters is location

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Your prognosis may turn out to be true.

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Any change in view with FED starting the printing press in earnest?

I don’t think Fed is starting to print again till 2024. High interest rates will keep pushing asset prices down and once wage to asset prices / expenses become normal again (pre pandemic levels) then I suspect Fed will start to ease. Wall Street will keep spinning Fed pivot theories in the meantime. Service and wage inflation are still super high and Fed won’t stop till that is contained.
I’ll start investing in Rae again starting this fall.

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Too early! You need to wait until Oct-Dec 2024 for peak bottom.

Why do you say so? You expect interest rates to peak first?

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All guess work, anything can happen in future.

When FED stops rate hike, at some point after that, market turns bullish and continue to go up until spx 4300-4400 ( as of now estimates).

Then real drop will start appx Sep- Oct and that will end by Mar 2024. This drop will hit across country in to recession and will change course after 2024 elections. By March FED likely reduce the rate when breaking.

Very likely et that time, we may have everything at deals.

FED and USG acting fast, guesstimates may change.



Oct-Dec is not fall?

Fall 2024 is a year later?

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Most likely you are right. I also believe RE will keep falling through 2023 and 2024.
But may be wise to start looking a bit sooner.

Double dip doesn’t mean 2024 price is lower than 2023. It will depend on zip codes and your skill in spotting and negotiating for outstanding (good is not good enough) deals.

For GFC, prices bottom in 2009 or 2011 depending on zip codes.

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Somewhat I agree as real estate prices are related to location.

Overall, second dip of stocks are going to be harsher than current Oct 14, 2022 dip. Based on stock economy, after second stock crash, no one will have guts to buy big item and only few experienced, esp investors, will have cash to buy homes.

Supposing, if market reaches 4300 by Oct, it is not easy to get homes as stock money will still be there.

However, by March 2024 if market is appx 3000, it is easy to get homes.

IMO, better to wait until stock market and then start offers. In fact, my sons are ready buy homes and I just told them to hold on until stock reaches potential bottom.

IMO, With yield curve inverted, we have not hit bottom yet.

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It will be fun if we breach last year’s bottom. With prices rising all over it will cause much greater pain.

We will definitely face a recession and will be lower than Oct 2022, never know when, but we will see in future!

Many here may not like my comment. I stay away from my updates.

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Someone needs to tell people that real estate is supposed to be crashing. The house across the street went up for sale on Wednesday. It’s been a consistent 2-5 cars parked to tour during day time hours. They are averaging 20-30 cars at a time for today’s open house. I bet 200-300 people have toured it.

Inventory is just so darn low. Even though prices have come down about 20% (in the Bay Area) and folks have been getting laid off, the cost of homeownership has increased substantially over the last year due to higher rates.