Recession and inverse yield

[caiguycaiguy]

[hanera]

.

@Roy321

So opposite to all logic and data?

So are you assuming @Jil or you to be logical?

Game the market.
Front run the game.
Front run the front runner.
Front run the front runner of the front runner.
…
Which has the biggest impact?
Actually market is unpredictable.

@Jil

That is why WB says, for retail investors, just DCA S&P periodically while he waits for many years( like a crane to catch fish ) !

Not sure WB approach is better. I didn’t did any computation. Not counting from the start of his career… is unfair and not realistic. Try a random 20-year period.

[Roy321]

@hanera

you to be logical?

I’m saying my logic does not match up to the market’s logic.

I posted this earlier. Market seems to be going via this logic. Now, even they don’t know if market has priced in the recession.

“We’ve studied the presidential cycle carefully, and there’s something to it,” said Philip Orlando, the chief equity market strategist for Federated Hermes, a global asset manager based in Pittsburgh. “But it’s possible that this year we will need to invoke the four most dangerous words in investors’ lexicon: ‘This time is different.’”

Gloom in the Markets

Consider, first, the overall pessimism in the markets.

In the current climate, this comment, from Mark Hackett, the chief of investment research at Nationwide, counts as fairly upbeat. “We are now entering a stage where all signs point to a recession — assuming we aren’t already in one,” Mr. Hackett said. But, he added, “the recession may already be priced into the markets, in which case the next bull run may be faster and come earlier than many investors expect,” he said.

https://archive.ph/V8Kx1

@Jil Comments?

[hanera]

.

@Roy321

I’m saying my logic does not match up to the market’s logic.

Your logic is one of the logic that market is holding. There are so many logic, we don’t know which one is prevalent at any one time.

[Jil]

@hanera

1. So are you assuming @Jil
2. Actually market is unpredictable.

Yes, Assuming =>

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/

You are right => Actually market is unpredictable. (This is also assumption).

[Jil]

@Roy321

“We’ve studied the presidential cycle carefully, and there’s something to it,” said Philip Orlando, the chief equity market strategist for Federated Hermes, a global asset manager based in Pittsburgh. “But it’s possible that this year we will need to invoke the four most dangerous words in investors’ lexicon: ‘This time is different.’”

Gloom in the Markets
Consider, first, the overall pessimism in the markets.

In the current climate, this comment, from Mark Hackett, the chief of investment research at Nationwide, counts as fairly upbeat. “We are now entering a stage where all signs point to a recession — assuming we aren’t already in one,” Mr. Hackett said. But, he added, “the recession may already be priced into the markets, in which case the next bull run may be faster and come earlier than many investors expect,” he said.

All such reasoning may be right or wrong, it is only 50:50 chances!

IMO, normally these chief equity market strategist etc, come to TV channel or new papers for publicity and networking etc. Even if they know, they won’t tell, they are bound by their business NDA (non-disclosure agreement).

I used to listen such in bloomberg tv channel pre-2019 and believed they are right…etc. Nowadays, I do not give any weightage for TV channel/news papers etc.

Some truth about market:

1. No one can predict 100% right, everyone will show in TV and talk something attractive.
2. Market will have surprises
3. Retailers can not withstand big players

Then question will come, how can we do it?

Fundamentals for investment side. Do fundamental study properly, catch up all stocks that was dropped heavily.

Regarding recession, there are few papers from FED, they are worth reading/understanding the concepts. It is not easy to read such, but it works.

Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?

Taylor Rule Utility

[Jil]

So far, the correct predictor of market was done by Jim Simon’s Medalion Funds, but it is restricted to 300 employees private fund ( due to regulatory compliance of leverage ).

[hanera]

Study carefully the chart and you would discover the common belief is WRONG or at best not clear.

[Elt1]

Recession didn’t happen. In fact may not happen at all

[Jil]

Now, you see why Yield curve inverted

Big funds assume S&P is equal or slightly better than economy, Yield 3.5 for 10 year note is attractive !

[acre]

Demographics suck almost everywhere except Africa. I think that’s the main driver.

[Jil]

This is not easy any more with this historic inversion

[Jil]

Now yield inversion 40 years historic!

[Teo_Molcut]

During a recession, businesses face several effects that can impact their operations. Recession can have an impact on declining sales and revenues or even consumer spending because they reduce their spendings and prioritize essential items. Recession result in higher unemployment rates since businesses struggle to sustain their operations. In order to navigate the effects of a recession, businesses need to implement cost cutting measures, diversify their customer base, adapt their marketing strategies, and explore new revenue streams. If you want to know more information about the effects of the recession, read the following blog article I found. It has very useful information and can maintain people informed.

[hanera]