Recession and inverse yield

Here, be aware of the new changes. I am on my way to the office. I don’t have time to arguments right now. :sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile:

All Together

2018 2019 Increase
Limit on employee contributions to 401k, 403b, or 457 plan $18,500 $19,000 $500
Limit on age 50+ catchup contributions to 401k, 403b, or 457 plan $6,000 $6,000 None
SIMPLE 401k or SIMPLE IRA contributions limit $12,500 $13,000 $500
SIMPLE 401k or SIMPLE IRA age 50+ catchup contributions limit $3,000 $3,000 None
Highly Compensated Employee definition $120,000 $125,000 $5,000
Maximum annual additions to all defined contribution plans by the same employer $55,000 $56,000 $1,000
Traditional and Roth IRA contribution limit $5,500 $6,000 $500
Traditional and Roth IRA age 50+ catchup contribution limit $1,000 $1,000 None
Deductible IRA income limit, active participant in workplace retirement plan, single $63,000 – $73,000 $64,000 – $74,000 $1,000
Deductible IRA income limit, active participant in workplace retirement plan, married filing jointly $101,000 – $121,000 $103,000 – $123,000 $2,000
Deductible IRA income limit, spouse is active participant in workplace retirement plan $189,000 – $199,000 $193,000 – $203,000 $4,000
Roth IRA income limit, single $120,000 – $135,000 $122,000 – $137,000 $2,000
Roth IRA income limit, married filing jointly $189,000 – $199,000 $193,000 – $203,000 $4,000
FSA Contribution Limit $2,650 $2,700 $50

:laughing::laughing::laughing::laughing::laughing: I love to give people a hard time. Specially when the lack of manners come to play.

Tonight, it was a prosperous night, the best in 30 years, a solar guy introduced me to 2 clients. Both are 39-45 yo. I got to roll over a $208K from a 401K into an annuity to avoid the 10% penalty, from there will do an immediate withdrawal of $40K per year to put into an IUL, so the taxes won’t increase their tax bracket. Then, open 4 IULs for their wives and sisters, 2 Worker’s comp audits from a chain of restaurants and furniture stores. Same 2 clients for the 10% tax deduction from gross income. Then an audit of both cost segregation, plus credits on hiring employees, plus deferring capital gains for 30 years on a property being sold for $3.5M. Then, solar panels, and energy saving programs for both businesses. Reduction of credit cards fees, there’s more as we discover their incomes and needs. Not bad for about $125K in commissions. :laughing:

I think I will retire after these deals. :smile::smile::smile::smile:

But, here I am, I lost track of the importance of numbers, I was discussing a $6K a year contribution, it is petty stuff. Not worth anybody’s nor my time. WTH was I thinking? :laughing:

I just wish good luck seeing the present crash of the stock market, about 1,500+ points lost in a few days, I hope you get a prosperous return in your investment. You will need the best of lucks, really!

I gave you above the scenarios of how to prepare for the retirement so your SS check doesn’t get taxed.
Use it or lose it.

The end.

Yield curve steepened a little bit. 2/10 is now +20 bps. Was as low as +11 early this month. 2/5 is no longer inverted.

1 Like

1-2-3 year is now decidedly inversed. What can this mean? Will Fed start decrease rate in 2020 and 2021?

1-5 and 1-7 are also inverted.

It seems that Powell has made a mistake and overshot. He should stop here and no more rate increase for the next 10 years.

FED won’t do anything about this simple yield curve inversion, but market needs to change, either make the yield curve up or break up like downturn…

Almost inverted.

16%20PM

1 Like

Almost inversion :flushed:

2 Likes

Sell 1% of your portfolio every day :rofl: In 5 months, you will be out. Is it in time to avoid the crash?

Buy n hold ignore such temporary economic conditions.
Get rid of loss making growth stocks!

1 Like

Then why are not holding your 50 TSLA :rofl:

Now deep red! TSLA didn’t make a dime! Elon talked a lot, but cloud and semi rallied way more!

When AAPL went deep red also, you were holding it right. Why can not you do the same with TSLA?

Because I was busy working and didn’t pay attention at all. Yes, I boo about able to hold despite the deep 50-99% decline, the secret is I wasn’t looking at the account :slight_smile: Also, Apple has a good team. TSLA seems like an one-man show, Elon doesn’t let any1 shine.

1 Like

With AAPL too, Steve Jobs was single man show!
Same with AMZN
FB, Mark Z, single man show
Everywhere the case is there.
It is all founders they provide their life to bring up the company, not an easy task.

The truth is comfort of the investor. Each one of fixated with some companies and believe blindly.

Understanding good company at early time is essential and buy and hold like WQJ is exceptional no matter whether stocks go up or not.

One day, I talked a friend, when he was a fresher/newbie investing, asked him to choose best company for buy and hold.

Believe it or not, he is holding NFLX since $80, but only 4 stocks.

Somehow I do not get that mindset even with S&P500!

1 Like

Apple is not one-show during SJ. Jony is well known. So is Tim, Peter, Jon, Tony, Scott, Avie, etc.
FB has two personalities, Mark and Sheryl.
AMZN is kind of like TSLA, other than Jeff, everybody are relatively obscure.

Learn to play Chess :slight_smile: You would realize making moves that have no impact can be a powerful move.

1 Like

A Fully Inverted Yield Curve, And Consequently A Recession, Are Coming To Your Doorstep Soon

1 Like

It is because of this impending recession, I am skeptical and trading back and forth to increase my cash position.

I still regret, last year, losing 167k even though I clearly noticed a downfall in Sep 24th, but never knew how depth the fall would be ! Experience, experience and experience matters a lot…

Since 1955, yield curve inversion is a forerunner of recession

Every recession of the past 60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve, according to research from the San Francisco Fed. Curve inversions have correctly signaled all nine recessions since 1955 and had only one false positive, in the mid-1960s, when an inversion was followed by an economic slowdown but not an official recession

This is information sharing purpose, do not take any action (Buy/Sell) based on this blog message.

I believe this is part of why “the smart money is on bonds” is a saying. It’s the buying/selling by bond investors that inverts the yield curve. They know and move in advance of the recession.

1 Like

Looks like the 3M-10Y has finally inverted today. :scream: