Doomed.
Have you sold your stocks? If not, you donât believe him
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Who said you need to sell stock into recession?
To buy back cheaper 
If not selling before recessions, whatâs the point to forecast recessions? Might as well ignore it and continue to enjoy every bit of your time
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If you are convinced recession will start within the next 12 months, when should you sell? Today? 3 months later? And when should you buy back?
All the information is public and for everyone to see. Yield curve has been inverted for months now. Stock market has already discounted all this information.
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Stock market would only go into bear market when almost everyone think there wonât be one or one has passed. There are tons of complacency and people seem to have tons of money (or are they using leverage?). Stock market is still supported by liquidity. Unless or until banks start to tighten liquidity, market wonât drop that easily. Monitor the banks (and the Fed?).
Stock market is now in the âbad news is good newsâ cycle. Last Friday the job report was more bullish than people expected and market went down because people worried the Fed may not lower rates.
So if a recession does indeed come, provided itâs a shallow and short one the stock market may not go down too much. It has already gone down and come back up last 12 months.
2/10 year yield curve inverted now
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Just wake up? Thought is inverted for a long time 
I thought it was the other yield curves? Not the 2-10.
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I wonder if this will push the fed to cut rates faster. It also makes me wonder why the fed sets rates. The market seems more efficient at it, and for years the fed only changes rates after its already priced into the market. I donât see what value the fed is adding unless we need an emergency breaker in cases of extreme volatility.
Theyâve been dead wrong about low unemployment and inflation. They finally admitted the relationship doesnât exist anymore. Anyone paying attention to labor force participation and part-time workers knew it would take a very long time before low unemployment caused inflation.
Just 800 points down. Nothing to see there but the effects of the sheep following the MAGA hat. 
Dismantling of globalization could be the cause of the upcoming recession. Germany is on the brink.
Trade has become the Boogey man blamed for everything. The data says trade is still happening at very close to record levels. The big issue in Europe is an again population, low birth rates, and shrinking labor force. Those economies are going to shrink which by definition is a recession. Thatâs why their bond yields are now negative.
Donât just look at trade volume. Businesses are hesitant to make investments in an uncertain global environment. Aging demographics is not something that suddenly burst into scene this year. At worst it keeps growth slow. It wonât by itself tip an otherwise healthy economy into recession.
China published some pretty bearish econ numbers overnight. It seems to be doing worse than its headline GDP number suggests. Germany and Singapore with their outward facing economies are teetering on the edge. The world is highly interconnected. US canât do well if other major economies in the world donât do well.
China is moving to a services based economy. Thatâs a debt based economy. It can only grow as fast as debt is growing. They are trying to control and limit debt which will kill growth.
Thereâs choppiness in the chart but overall German exports are increasing. Theyâre having more issues with declines to other EU countries, and thereâs no trade war there. The EU is literally crumbling under massive government debt, high unemployment, low labor force participation, and an aging population.
France has unemployment of 8.7%. Thatâs insanely high. Spain is 14%.
That makes me think a recession is unavoidable. Weâve hit peak debt.
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