I wasnât able to see the original article, but elsewehre it said:
" Consumer debt, not counting mortgages, has climbed to $4 trillionâhigher than it has ever been even after adjusting for inflation. Mortgage debt slid after the financial crisis a decade ago but is rebounding.
Auto debt is up nearly 40% adjusting for inflation in the last decade to $1.3 trillion. And the average loan for new cars is up an inflation-adjusted 11% in a decade, to $32,187, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from credit-reporting firm Experian.
Massive debt⊠Consumer debt is a drain on everyone⊠except credit card companies. If people really are in the Middle class, theyâd be better off dropping to âpoorâ living status to cut it down.
Is middle class 25%± from median or mean income/ net worth or meeting an arbitrary set of criteria?
What I know is my parents and their contemporaries rents till government realizes economic growth is directly proportional to debt, the logical debt to increase is housing debt hence government pushes the idea that everybody should deserve to own a house. At the same time, pushes for population growth. Economy booms!
Heâs right. The fed overnight rate isnât influencing the bond market at all. The market is setting the rates, and itâs saying the fed is out of touch with reality. The fed should cut rates by at least a full percentage point. It also calls into question if the fed is still effective or even necessary.
First, I am trading, not investing, no need to panic about recession/correction as I always find a way to buy/sell. Investors (buy & hold) must be concerned about that.
Use your own judgement.
The market is suppose to correct by this time. Powell reduced rate cut, averted the big fall. FED is very well, expected to cut another rate by Dec 2019. That is normally be a sagging month and they are avoiding a fall again.
If the yield curve is inverted by market moving the position from stocks to bonds, recession will follow. IMO, The yield curve is inverted by Japanese and Euro economies. Most of the Japanese and euro banks having negative interest, they are not keeping cash in their currencies, but buying US treasuries (UST) as the yield in UST higher compared to their local.
This is where people needs to know and analyze what really causes yield curve inversion. who knows about it?
Keep in mind this is as global survey. Germany is already in recession accordind to the latest numbers. The US is still one of the best performing economies in the world right now.
Of course something like 40% of S&P earnings come from OUSâŠ
Yes, global economy domino effect will be pinching US market. For that main reason, FED reducing the rate to sustain the impact.
He is too big and can live with daily $400 million cash in flow without minding about correction. If correction/downturn occurs, he has huge stockpile of $120 Bln cash to play, he will get many companies at cheaper price.
Remember, he is not fully invested. If you read Kelly Criterion of asset allocation, he follows appx the same formula keeping 33% cash (UST) and 67% in market - that is the best allocation for maximum return.
Regarding the line, I know Home Depot is usually busy but it was more busy than I expected especially at that time. There was no special sale going on that i know of.