Rental Trend

Saw these charts from Financial Samurai’s post. Not sure where he got it from.

Did SF peak more than two years ago in Oct 2015? Really? 2BR in SJ peaked in April 2016? That didn’t sound right… :thinking:

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It seems right. What’s your opinion on the peak month?

I thought SF peaked in mid 2017?

I remember that Sf rent has been stagnating to decline for more than 2 years. High end market peaks before lower end.


Are you interested in SF rent because it’s an indicator for the area, or because you are following SF itself. Because if it’s the former, I question how good an indicator it is with the unique rent-control laws.

I think BA rents peaked in 2015…Still going up in tertiary markets like Sacramento and Tahoe…Once Sacramento rents peak we could see home prices peak and maybe drop…Condos will drop first…The canary in the mine…

So far no evidence of slowing in the Sacramento market…Eldorado hills is very healthy with houses selling in less than 40 days at 98% of asking…Went house shopping there and Placerville…lots of inventory but plenty of sales…25 groups were at one open house…$515k for a modest 4/3 remodeled older house


I think this is accurate. My rental in south bay peaked in 2016 and I couldn’t increase the rent for 2017.

Although his predictions for home prices has not been accurate. He was expecting a slowdown since last year.


Here is what $515k gets in Eldorado Hills…was worth $450k last year

Lots of tech workers…11% work remotely

Intel, HP, Apple

For the price of a modest Sunset home…A mansion on the lake with pool tennis court guest house…


SJ is about right. Rents were higher a year before I moved. I know people that renewed at lower rates.

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Why is 1BR in San Jose still making new high while 2BR peaked 1.5 years ago?

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The only thing unaffordable left?

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As Bay Area rent goes lower but price keeps going higher, the rent-vs-buy ratio will favor renting more and more. It has been cheaper to rent in say Cupertino than buying for a while now.

When will we see house price go down in core Bay Area? :scream:

towards end of this year, is my guess.

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Crazy :ox:

he’s saying it because he’s always a bull.

I don’t think you should care if it fluctuates within 5% give or take. Especially if you are talking RBA.

You need significant deterioration of the current conditions in order for a meaningful decline to happen. A slower market is desireable for most folks and slower does NOT equal lower prices all the time. Check the high end over the last few years.


I flagged your comment as inappropriate :rofl:

And I got a badge for that too!!! :rofl:

5% on a 2.5M house in Sunnyvale is 125K. Not huge but not small either.

If house price just goes sideway it will compare poorly with other investments. Even 10 year Treasury yields north of 3% today.

Primary home is not really an investment. That explains out of control prices compared to rent.