Rich Renters


#42

US is scheduled to raise tariff from 10% to 25% on Mar 1 if no deal.


#43

When it comes to investment, it is long term commitment like your AAPL holding, immaterial whether Trump tariff deadline extends or removed or agreement reached.

If you are concerned about this, you are speculating like me. That is why, I am confidently telling “none of the forum members” did their research/analysis about Cloud Royals.

The way we use stock market is using a canoe in flowing water, we sail along with market stream - pure speculative run.

What is the guarantee any of the cloud companies survive the downturn (like 2000 or 2008) as most of them are not making profits? Even if they have profits, most of them using subscription model. If there is downturn and their customers cancel the subscriptions (mass subscription cancellation), will they be able to survive the downturn or file bankruptcy?

This is the key issue we need to focus for long term investment.

Remember even big banks were not spared during downturns, they sought the help of warren buffet (cash holder).


#44

How come you are asking me the same questions I have?
We knew is Cloud bubble :slight_smile: so similar outcome as Internet bubble where AMZN, EBAY, PCLN, SFLY, QUOT, JNPR and AKAM survive :slight_smile: May be more but not aware of them :hugs: So many on the list will survive, and we can have them for a pretty penny when Cloud bubble burst. Think AMZN, can get for like $6? Have you forgotten that I got AAPL for pretty pennies?

Trumped = caused a recession!
Why bother to buy now when there would be a recession? WB said buy at 30% margin of safety. None offer that now. WB also market timed, he merely use seemingly more educated words, 30% margin of safety.


#45

Because I want to invest in good companies long term like you and WQJ, but skeptical about economy.


#46
  1. You need to put a significant amount of money into the market (>50% of your net worth).
  2. You cannot sell any of it even if the recession came along and wiped out 50% of that. Just stay put and act as if nothing happened.

If you managed to go through with 1 & 2 above, then you are an investor for the long haul.


#47

To dare to hold an investment worth 50% of your net worth that might decline by more than 50%, you need to have unyielding belief in the long term prospect of the company. For all those cloud royals, we don’t have a clue of the character and caliber of the CEO nor an idea of the sustainability of the subscription model. For FAANG & TSLA, we have a good grasp of the CEO and the business model, pretty sure can survive a recession. For VEEV and SPLK, their clients are rock solid established businesses so have much higher probability of surviving the recession than most cloud companies. For most of the cloud companies, their clients are almost as unproven as the cloud companies, hard to know whether they can survive a recession. So is ok to trade the hype but has to wait for the burst to tell us which one are the likely survivors. Meanwhile, find out as much about them as possible and enjoy the trampoline.


#48

No need to put all your money into one basket. Buy a group of stocks.


#49

Agree 100% on this bold highlighted.

I trust Warren Buffet stocks as I believe he would have done enough research before putting his money. The market prices may go up or down, but company survives long with his scrutiny. I do not need to reinvent the wheel, just grab his boat and swim. Same is the case for FAANG+TSLA.


#50

Should be same for cloud kings and princes too. Jim Cramer did the work! Remember FAANG is coined by Jim Cramer.


#51

When Cramer coined FAANG it was booming. Since late 2017 choppy, end result pretty stagnant


#52

Housing also dipped 10%. Should we be selling our rentals now to cut some loss?


#53

I am buying. What is my discount price? Been buying stocks too.


#54

Only 10%. Not much…


#55

Any one can form any acronyms, but blind investment even in FAANGs are not right, Similarly for Cloud Kings+Queens.

Jim Cramer is passer by and he always tells the world after the fact.

Hard part is identifying the stocks that stay long years, say 10+ years
Second part is What price is best for you to get in, as buy and hold?

Say, if you have 1M, which are the stocks you want to buy and At what price will make you grow better?

Say buying AAPL at $142 is wise or $175 or at $225? I did blindly at $225 and results is seen now !
This shows even the best stock you can not enter blindly, but needs to wait for an opportunity.


AAPL
#56

Statistics Source:

According to CAR, sales in SF dropped 12.2 percent compared to 2017, with the median price of a house in SF actually down year over year, from $1.5 million last year to more than $1.44 million now.

This means 3.7% drop (=56000*100/1500000)

More county by county info


#57


#58

You guys often implicitly rely on momentum investing, but there is a strong case to be made for value investing, which, Jil, you are referencing.

Even with housing, it does not always pay to rely on market momentum. Try to find a house / piece of property that is under-priced or can have value added to it easily or which is located in an area which is/will go through rapid improvement but that the price does not yet reflect.

The value discount is where you make the $. Momentum is gravy on top.


#59

NW Austin/ suburbs :slight_smile:


#60

Buy below the midpoint for a neighborhood and where schools are improving.


#61

I always look at SFH, large lot to get in. I was watching and expecting this home to get hot and it really did !

DryCreek road homes are very exclusive community, with large lots (.55 acre), most likely be bid by some builders with full cash.

Neighborhood is 3.5M to 8M range for 3000 sqft+ homes.

The buyer will tear-down and rebuild a brand new bigger home now.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/2173-Dry-Creek-Rd-95124/home/1414016

The price is for lot size only ! Even at down market, this is pure deal ! If someone is interested, go for open house, see the location