But, it does create a big market opportunity domestically.
If US and China trade war continues. expect high unemployment in US for long time. do you think there will be no backlash in rest of 48 states against all immigrants?. further decline in dollar reserve currency will create lack of investments for big multinationals as consumers will have less to consume.
Trade war with China has a popular support in the USA. We will see how it turns out.
China already change Oil/Gas imports away from Middleast and with new Iran deal it is further crimping purchases from Gulf countries.
The problem China is facing is not how to buy oil cheap, but how to move oil from Iran/ME to China.
If China creates hostility with the world, it will be very difficult for China to move oil from Iran/ME to China. One solution could be to build a pipeline from Iran to China. Easier said than done considering the number of countries it will have to pass through. India can choke the highway through Pakistan anytime. So that option is out of the table. Sea rout through Indo-Pacific is the only viable path.
what do you think will happen to millions of Indian working in Gulf countries? And without those money transfers. Further decline in internal consumption.
Good point. India has great leverage in the Middle East. The decline of ME will certainly affect India.
Russia is spending $40B a year to build Railway and ports to put all China-EU-Middleast trade shift to North.
Who is connecting India with anyone in world with same speed?
India has a generally positive image all over the world. That itself is a great asset.
Its clear. North America vs South America. Northern EU vs Club Mediterranean countries. Even in China the Northern parts much stronger in Engineering talent than some one from Hong Kong.Taiwan is exception but thats more like it open to West capital much earlier. . It is completely depended on EU for building new Fabs.
It is not clear to me though. But, I may be missing something that you can see.