Leaders in India’s technology industry are urging the country to go even further to protect the interests of local companies against foreign rivals, or risk ceding the world’s fastest growing internet arena to Chinese and American monopolies.
The rise of protectionism will eventually lead to the demise of international trade amongst big nations. Small nations would have to join economic trading bloc hosted by those big nations. India wants to be one of those few
Why India? Don’t they have a large domestic market?
Anti-globalization sentiments have been around for awhile, I recall late SJ talked about it, so has been around for at least 10 years. Trump ratcheted it up and politicized as anti-China capitalizing on the trade imbalance and sentiments of blue collar guys in mid-west.
I read that China is well aware and has been working hard to build a domestic economy. With this tariff war, China has to work harder.
IMHO, is just pendulum swing. World has swung too globalization and many people are left behind. Now pendulum has to swing the other way. A world of protectionism for xxx years/ decades.
I linked to an article years ago about how Trump would be like carter. By then FDR’s new deal was running out of steam and cracks were showing up. Reagan and over in UK Thatcher launched neoliberalism: free trade, tax cut and deregulation. That was in 1980.
Now neoliberalism is again running out of steam. Turns out all the economic benefits went to the upper class. Adjusted for inflation wages for the rest hasn’t risen much at all. Trump won election on the back of that anger and frustration.
Tide is turning. If you tune out his idiotic words, Trump’s economic policies look pretty much like Bernie’s. It’s classical left wing stuff but somehow the right wing guys just swallowed it raw. Biden will officially launch US into a new direction.
Stocks will soar here in the US with more protectionism. The world lacks demand. The US have the biggest demand but it’s leaking over to China. Keep that demand here in the US and we will all benefit.
Helping the poorer guys helps the economy. They spend every dollar they make. The rich just save it. Faster velocity of money will help the economy and thus buoys the long term prospects of companies here.
The unemployment checks should have told you how putting money directly into the hands of the poor helps the stock market.
Protectionism doesn’t necessarily mean lower foreign revenue. The dumb way Trump did would. But there are smarter ways to go about it. One proposal is to tax incoming capital. By the accounting identity if the Chinese export more than they import they have excess USD. Tax foreign owned capital instead of putting tariffs on physical goods.
I think killing globalization would change the game. In theory, it’d make more since to own small, local businesses than publicly traded companies. Global companies would have a massive financial reckoning as markets are closed to them.
I think we are actually becoming more global though if you look at it. China has finally opened markets that were previously closed to outside companies. We didn’t get rid of NAFTA. It was replaced. Our trade with Europe is more open now too. The truth is a lot of countries had unfair tariffs on the US. We finally stood up and demanding fair trade.
Confirmation Bias and Motivated Reasoning in action? Trump does not give free college to all or free healthcare for all. I was expecting better from you.
I do not look at investments elsewhere,…India needs another 2-3 decade with people like Modi, dedicated person. I do not want to go controversial subjects too.
India is 1.4 Billion population, a market in its own right. India has attracted overseas businesses and invaders since ancient times. From the times of Alexander, Portuguese, Dutch, French, English, Middle East, Central Asia etc. In-fact North America was found when Columbus wanting to sail to India lost its way and ended up in Caribbean.
It will be interesting to see How India will react in coming times.
Added Later: Add China to the list too. Actually, an ancient university was found by a British Archaeologist (Mr Cunningham) based on the dairy written by a Chinese traveler ( cannot recall date and name, can be googled) who visited India and attended the university before it was burnt down by some peace loving invaders (CIR 1200 AD)
Large domestic consumers does not mean money to consume or tax collection to built first rate infrastructure.
If US and China trade war continues. expect high unemployment in US for long time. do you think there will be no backlash in rest of 48 states against all immigrants?. further decline in dollar reserve currency will create lack of investments for big multinationals as consumers will have less to consume.
China already change Oil/Gas imports away from Middleast and with new Iran deal it is further crimping purchases from Gulf countries.
what do you think will happen to millions of Indian working in Gulf countries? And without those money transfers. Further decline in internal consumption.
Russia is spending $40B a year to build Railway and ports to put all China-EU-Middleast trade shift to North.
Who is connecting India with anyone in world with same speed?
Its clear. North America vs South America. Northern EU vs Club Mediterranean countries. Even in China the Northern parts much stronger in Engineering talent than some one from Hong Kong.Taiwan is exception but thats more like it open to West capital much earlier. . It is completely depended on EU for building new Fabs.
But, it does create a big market opportunity domestically.
If US and China trade war continues. expect high unemployment in US for long time. do you think there will be no backlash in rest of 48 states against all immigrants?. further decline in dollar reserve currency will create lack of investments for big multinationals as consumers will have less to consume.
Trade war with China has a popular support in the USA. We will see how it turns out.
China already change Oil/Gas imports away from Middleast and with new Iran deal it is further crimping purchases from Gulf countries.
The problem China is facing is not how to buy oil cheap, but how to move oil from Iran/ME to China.
If China creates hostility with the world, it will be very difficult for China to move oil from Iran/ME to China. One solution could be to build a pipeline from Iran to China. Easier said than done considering the number of countries it will have to pass through. India can choke the highway through Pakistan anytime. So that option is out of the table. Sea rout through Indo-Pacific is the only viable path.
what do you think will happen to millions of Indian working in Gulf countries? And without those money transfers. Further decline in internal consumption.
Good point. India has great leverage in the Middle East. The decline of ME will certainly affect India.
Russia is spending $40B a year to build Railway and ports to put all China-EU-Middleast trade shift to North.
Good point.
Who is connecting India with anyone in world with same speed?
India has a generally positive image all over the world. That itself is a great asset.
Its clear. North America vs South America. Northern EU vs Club Mediterranean countries. Even in China the Northern parts much stronger in Engineering talent than some one from Hong Kong.Taiwan is exception but thats more like it open to West capital much earlier. . It is completely depended on EU for building new Fabs.
It is not clear to me though. But, I may be missing something that you can see.
Big market with no money and infrastructure bottleneck create inflation.
They already have pipelines. Plus huge increase in Railway.
Every thing will move up North. and Millions of Job losses will happen in southern Countries. and you think India can magically find money to consume?
in stocks and RE 
thus increase the wealth divide 