ditto for the period 2005-2020 
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From those charts, SF outperformance is limited to the 10 year period of 1995-2005. If you take out that 10 year period, SF appreciation is about the same as Austin. But Austin cash flow could make up for the difference.
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I am his friend trying very hard to rectify his short comings. Only friend do that. Your foes would flatter you 
Maybe one of the Austin startups turning 
into human food will become a unicorn? Now that its only unicorn isn’t one anymore it left a big hole. 
House price chart, rebased to 2012-01-01, the bottom of the housing bust. I bought my first house in 2011.
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What did you do for income before 2011?
What? And you want to teach those who have bought earlier than you? Do you think you are that smart? Show me your academic track record. Don’t need your net worth yet.
I bought first house in US in 2003. 2nd house in 2007. 3rd house in 2011.
Never said I am smart. I just like to play with charts.
Bought my first house in 1976.
In Bay Area, you need to time the market to get very good appreciation. In Austin, you just buy at any time and there’s usually no big bust.
Peak to peak, Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Francisco are worse since 2007.
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Bought my first rental in 2012. 
Huge bust in the 1980s. My buddies bought Austin properties for ten cents on the dollar from the RTC. Austin is subject to oil fluctuations, it is the Capitol of an oil state.
You have no idea about RE trends or prices.
Austin is a burial ground for naive Ca investors.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/38ca5231-4779-335c-bf61-a46b775a7c9a
Would be interesting to see how Texas’ budget will get impacted. Oil crashed, pandemic closed up shops, and the state doesn’t collect income tax. Maybe they can hike property taxes to make ends meet? 
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Look at the house in my OP. Someone bought it in 2011 for $285,000 and sold it for $450,0000 and it’s now selling for $600,000. Hence, there is good long term appreciation.
Can’t drive a car looking in the rear view mirror.
Your dream deal has been on the market 55 days. At least 10% over priced. Watch the inventory. If it rises dramatically into the coming slow season prices could nose dive.
I expect inventory to double and then prices will drop at least 20% over the next year or two. Especially the Vrbo/AirBnB dependent ones. Lots of Arizona house sit empty for the next 4-6 months
I would not bet on appreciation anywhere for the next four years. Keep your powder dry.
In the Great Recession we saw RE prices drop up to 80% in places like Arizona. Much greater loses than even in the 1930s. Prices did not start to recover until 2012. Many places are still not back to their 2006 ATH.
Be patient. RE is sticky … prices will come down slowly. Rentals will lead the way as landlords get foreclosed on nationally. Most AirBnB properties are in trouble.
The reopening is key.
Most people on this forum believe the
reopening should be delayed as long as possible until we are guaranteed safe, yet they are bullish on RE?? Bad news …we won’t be safe for years
Every delay in reopening guarantees a longer recession. Even optimists believe it will last till 2022. Best case estimates are the vaccines won’t be completely effective for two years. Meanwhile double digit unemployment, higher than seen in 85 years.
Tahoe is reopening. My favorite restaurant Evans is opening on Friday. Friends are going to celebrate. I will wait a month. But June 1 is big reopening for everyone in Nor Cal. We will see. If there is a huge virus resurgence then we are all screwed.
SoCal is SOL. Arizona gets a lot of SoCal visitors. The River is packed already. Not out of the woods yet.
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Cutting the expenses will also make the ends meet. California should do the same.