Definitely inflation in housing prices. Tahoe still number one in the country. Prices up 36% in one year. Actually a lot more since the first of the year. Multiple offers and prices 30% over asking is very common
Zillow estimates and appraisals are way under sold prices
It will be interesting to see if the lockdown and riot effect in urban areas persists. Depending on the verdict in the Floyd case it may subside or get another push.
Panda predicts inflation! Do you agree?
If valuation of stocks are DCF using 10 yr Treasury yield as discount rate, any increase in yield would decrease the valuation. Since yield starts from a very low base and is climbing a lot by percentage term, the decrease in valuation has to be HUGE! EPIC!
Dude, Panda needs to go back to forest and chew on his bamboo. He’s making one bad call after another.
Did Tesla crash? Nope. Rocketed up after his call.
Did SPX crash today? Nope. Rocketed up after Powell speech.
I said this before. Some people may seem to have predictive power for a little while but it’s just luck. You don’t know when their hot streak will end. And looks like Panda’s hot streak has ended.
It’s much better to go back to fundamentals and reason from first principles.
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Does it mean I can say “may be this, may be that”? Anyhoo, QQQ is moving along the pitchfork uptrend nicely, break in the morning but CLIMB back in.
“Maybe this or that” is not prediction and it’s certainly not helpful. But hey usually we don’t have any particular insights so that should be default position.
But on inflation I do have a position. It may look high for a little while but next year it will come back down to the normal low level. The frame of reference should be the pre-Covid years. Was inflation high two years ago? No. Why should inflation be high in 2022 after Covid accelerated the digital transformation of the economy? Technology is deflationary. Aging demographics is also deflationary.
The only thing that has changed are fiscal and monetary policies. They finally realized their mistakes and are willing to try something new. So at least we have a fighting chance to get more inflation but we are against very strong structural forces.
So I think we have a decent chance to get 2-3% inflation if the Fed doesn’t get scared by all these inflation alarmists, but zero chance to get anything above 4. If the Fed got spooked and tightens prematurely like it has always done in the last two decades then we don’t even have 2-3. Back to be stuck at sub 2.
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This is no difference from, “may be this, may be that” 
Really? Thought I said 0% chance of above 4%? That means we won’t see the 70s scenario your Youtube boy tried to scare people of.
BTW I hope he didn’t really mean to sit on his commodities for the long term and BK his clients.
US is barely getting back on the old trendline. Meanwhile Europe can’t even manage that.
That’s why the frame of reference should be pre-Covid, say 2018 or 19. If you compare with 2020 it may seem we have runaway inflation. But it’s just an artifact of having a pandemic-depressed economy last year.
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Europe still publish monthly car sales data while US it moved to quarterly and still issue of confidence on that data.
If nothing else you have China-Europe cargo trains that have growth rate of 100%. and despite so much imports Euro and pound still holding there values.
Europeans don’t buy stuff like Americans. They consume little have small cars. tiny dwellings and are heavy savers. Especially Germans. Their economies will not be major growth engines
I don’t see the following getting mentioned in mainstream media yet so I will throw them out here.
Europe is fumbling their vaccine rollout very badly. It looks like they are having a 3rd Covid wave right now. No recovery in the EU region this year and that will tamper down short term inflationary pressure.
China will see a consumer resurgence this year. That means they don’t need to prime the infrastructure pump to juice growth. The crazy commodity boomlet last year was in large part due to Chinese infrastructure and real estate building demand. This year they don’t need to pile on debt to do that and still have decent growth due to consumer spending. Again it will dial down short term inflationary pressure.
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Yes, just randomly decide which numbers to believe and which are fake. Lol.
I often wonder how come LatAm is such a loser when it comes to economic growth. Dumb decisions like this must be one reason.
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The covid19 pandemic has been devastating to Brazil
Which camp are you in?
- Old fashioned baby boomers worried about inflation.
- JP camp. Inflation is temporary.
- Ignorance is bliss group. BTFD group.
The behavior of above three camps could explain the divergence of EW picture of SPX and QQQ. Group 1 is driving SPX. Group 2&3 is driving QQQ.
In short, I would stay with TQQQ.
I thought boomers really worrying about inflation would load up on gold? No love for gold nowadays?
I don’t follow gold, bitcoin, silver, bonds, VIX, … what I know is what I read in headlines and here. True or not, no idea. So much things to follow, I prefer to watch TV serials 
more interesting. I kind of like camp 3 in attitude… all these babbling…
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This data is published by Chinese regarding Europe. It is not Europe hyping its own data.
certain things are obvious. for example if i drive fully loaded F series Truck. People may thing i have alot money (but it maybe a work truck) but if i wear European Suits and Shoes most people will not recognize the consumption value.
Gold value is strong when you consider some large exporters are delivering physical gold at rate that never happen before.
UK bought $17b worth of physical Gold from one country alone and still British Pound at 1.40. These European countries are spending like there is no tommorrow. They also suspended stamp duty on home sales for more than one year. It is like buying home and not paying any closing costs.