Secular inflation is here

Inflation in America may be even worse than thought

Changes to the construction of the consumer-price index have distorted comparisons

In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) exhibited a year-over-year increase of 8.6%, which represents the highest rate of inflation since 1981. Additionally, the nominal price of petroleum reached a historical high. Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical tensions have exerted a detrimental effect on global economic growth.

Used car price is going down big.

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Drop to 6.5%? So today’s green already account for this.

Recessions pose a significant challenge to individuals, businesses, and governments. The high unemployment rate that typically accompanies a recession can have a detrimental impact on individuals and families. Consumer spending also tends to decrease, further exacerbating the economic downturn. A reduction in investment and increase in government debt are also common challenges during a recession. Additionally, recessions can lead to an increase in poverty, putting a strain on social welfare systems. Overall, recessions present a complex and multifaceted set of challenges that require careful consideration and management.

…data from the BLS showed prices in December decreased 0.1% over the prior month and 6.5% over the prior year…

…Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, prices climbed 5.7% year-over-year and 0.3% over the prior month…

Screenshot 2023-01-12 at 8.09.50 AM

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I think more rate hikes will cause deflation.

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Commodities are down. rents and home prices down. Gas below $3… except Ca. Why is the CPI not negative?

M/M is -0.1% :wink:

Have you tried to buy a dozen eggs lately?

Deflation is already here if we used more uptodate rent data from Zillow. Government data is seriously lagging.

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Official December CPI components. It’s dominated by shelter which grew by 9.2% according to BLS outdated rent data.

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Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker shows wage growth slowing down sharply. It’s now back to Jan 2022 level.

This happens while labor market is still tight and unemployment rate at decade low. But Larry Summers is still twiddling his thumbs in the warm sunny beach of Bahamas demanding the Fed continue to hike to make more people lose their jobs.

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I figured eggs are a victim of peta, vegans and environmentalists. They are all determined to starve themselves and the rest of us. I refuse to buy eggs at $5/dozen. There are plenty of ways to beat food costs

According to our resident troll house prices will drop 50% this year. And rents will drop too. I have definitely seen a decline in both.
Some things are up but there are plenty of discounts on sales of retail goods that were over ordered. Used car prices are dropping precipitously. Older cars are being given away. Lots of deals if you have a good mechanic.

Going well so far. Be patient.

Avian flu killed supply. That’s why eggs are up so much more than other food items. It’s not inflation.

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I can get Peking duck eggs locally for $6 a dozen. Bigger and tastier than chicken eggs. I go with those and when I can’t get those I go without for a week or two.