Talk so much. I would ignore all these talk cocks and media.
0.25% Feb 1
0.25% Mar
Pause till end of year.
Nothing change. People just like to talk and wish.
Nothing is more important than anchored wage spiral so monitor unemployment rate, jobless claims and jobs added.
That is, inflation is still not under control yet.
Thanks for confirming what’s almost 100% priced into the market. Way to be useful…
Fed officials making speeches is not useless. I’d say the opposite. These speeches are tremendously valuable. They are setting market expectations weeks in advance of FOMC meetings, let the market price in the expected moves, and so markets don’t get surprised on the FOMC day. They act to smooth out the market volatility.
It now looks like 25bps raise is all but certain.
That was already the priced in assumption. All they’ve done for YEARS is set rates to what the market has priced into it.
The Fed is the one feeding the market its assumption. Imagine if Fed officials made hawkish speeches one after another, the market will price in the hawkish scenario then.
Sometimes the market priced in the wrong scenario, got surprised and things got ugly. Like in mid last year. Despite officials kept saying they will stay on course market didn’t believe, and got severely punished.
Perfect understanding! Kudos to you !!
FOMC watch tool is based on bond futures by limited participants. How reliable futures is well known !
Second, FED openly announced, last meeting, terminal rates are extended to 0.5% range and the minutes also reveals the same. The decision will be made by 18 FED people as a consensus.
Market futures may suddenly change even last day. Media will post hawkish interview person when market dips and bullish interviews when market swings up.
Understanding Reality is important for retail traders/investors than using changing media & moving target market futures.
Yup. Inflation is essentially dead. Continuing to increase rates would be reckless.
2x4 8’ long less than $3… Back to pre Covid prices.
Here is the real problem. Government is encouraging people not to work. Giving away money. Inflation is baked in.
People care about wokeness when they literally have zero other worries. That’s how easy life has become.
An easy life leads to depression obesity diabetes anxiety and early death. Adversity creates and builds character.
I skied with a rehab nurse yesterday. At 54 she is shocked at how old and decrepit her contemporaries are. People her age that are old tired and fat. Getting new knees and hips . Keep moving or die.
No one can find motivated labor. Stopped in a Safeway today to pick up some groceries. Understaffed; only two lanes open with what I’ve come to call “Taelon checkers.” Anyone here watch a 90’s’ SciFi series called “Earth: Final Conflict?” Remember Zo’or and Da’an? I swear, those checkers moved just like that as the lines got longer. Just less graceful.
I found a guy to shovel snow for a neighbor. $50/hr cash. Freelance. Works as cashier at Smart and Final. Probably gets paid $20/hr or less. Maybe Safeway will have pay more. Last year my tenant with a college degree was paid $17/hr at Safeway. The minimum wage increases means that skilled labor is a minimum of $35/hr. Construction is $50/hr. The minimum wages laws are a major cause for inflation. Increased salaries with no increases in productivity. And no increases in housing or goods and services. Government caused inflation. And of course huge increases in SS payments. Lots of money chasing limited resources,
Inflation is slowing. Now the magic question is will the fed align their interest rate guidance with market expectations. I think it’s growing more likely we get 0.25% in Feb then a pause.
.
His investment is suffering. IMHO, Fed should continue its plan of 0.25% Feb, 0.25% Mar. Not enough evidence that inflation is not anchored.
.
Tech layoffs don’t mean layoffs for the rest of the MainStreet.
Looks like the 18 month long “secular” inflation is finally dead. Even JPow can’t pretend anymore and has to admit disinflation has set in.
It’s obvious in hindsight. Why did people believe disruptions from a once-in-a-century pandemic will become the new normal? People adjusted. Economy adjusted.
Waiting for a table in a Chinese restaurant at 8pm on a Thursday night. JPow obviously hasn’t damaged the economy badly enough. Need to raise another 200bps!!
