Secular inflation is here

This makes my day :slight_smile: :joy: :rofl:

You guys are still talking about Trump?

:rofl:

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Ok. If Bond king says so it must be true.

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But will inflation come roaring back? England thought they had it under control only to find out they didn’t.

NO, inflation won’t come back, but FED won’t relax easily until economy goes down as they planned.

Do not read whatever daily news is telling, just listen Powell conference, he will very likely stick to it !

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It’ll be fine as long as the government doesn’t handout massive amounts of “free” money again. Student loan payments will resume soon which will take pressure off inflation too. People have had that extra cash to spend for 3 years now.

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I went to the Toyota dealer in Tahoe yesterday. Truck prices were actually not bad, with no dealer markups. But the salesman was spouting the same old Covid caused chip shortage crap.
Looks like Covid created the inflation mentality. Hard to break.

If people spend less, then inflation has to break. The data says people have spent their surplus savings from Covid. Now student loan payments are resuming. People will have less to spend.

I’m noticing huge slowdowns in home stuff. Everyone is offering heavy discounting now. It’s easy to find 20-35% off.

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EVs are the problem. Trucks could be built without all the extras. I call four door pickups chickups. They are basically SUVs for hauling people more than cargo. They can build trucks without semiconductors but they actually are enjoying their self created shortage. By pushing EVs the government is actually causing the semiconductor shortage.

However, demand for semiconductors has been supercharged by the increase in electric vehicles (EVs) hitting the market. Raimondo said that the average EV uses twice as many chips as gasoline-powered vehicles. As EVs take up an increasing market share, demand for the microprocessors that power them will continue to grow exponentially.

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Yes. They also shot themselves in the foot when Covid hit. Auto companies were expecting a long downturn. They decreased orders and future capacity plans. The semi manufacturers happily used the capacity for electronics companies. When the economy rapidly rebounded, there wasn’t capacity for the auto companies. It takes a long time to get new capacity online. Combine that with EVs needing more semis, and it’s a disaster. I’m surprised higher rates haven’t killed new car sales.

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Well they actually had vehicles for sale in the lot. So that’s a start
Trucks in the last few years became ridiculously expensive. But I was impressed with the mileage. The big Tundra trucks have 389hp twin turbo V6s that get the same mileage as the Tacomas with 100 less hp and 1000# lighter. 20mpg is lot better that old trucks with 13mpg.
It looks like the fuel efficiency is costing reliability. The old 5.7 V8 was a tank.

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CPI comes in at 4.9%, YoY with 5.0% expected.
CPI MoM: 0.4%, expected 0.4%.

Remain high are transportation, food away from home and shelter.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Next scary day is more than one month away. Jun 13 :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

First time Truflation dropped below 3.5% this cycle. Official CPI data still have our inflation at an imaginary 4.9%.

Not sure the lies about inflation are in the direction you assume.

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“found that the nation’s oldest adults who retired before 2000 have lost 36% of their buying power since the turn of the century.”

I’m not surprised over that long of time period. I have no idea how most Americans will retire, since they are fully dependent on social security for it.

I think the big issue is excluding food and energy from core numbers. Short-term, they can be volatile. Excluding them when the long-term trends are clearly higher prices is just brutal to social security COLA adjustments. They should use a moving-average to smooth out volatility but still account for long-term increases.

Powell should just declare victory and retire.

I think the biggest problem with Social Security is that people think they can retire on that money alone. It’s only supposed to be a lifeline, that seniors won’t be destitute. It’s also a federal program. It doesn’t matter where people retire live. The money is fully portable.

I am curious how that study concluded SS buying power is down 36% in 20 years. Other than housing and health care I don’t think prices have increased all that much in other areas, that COLA has consistently come short.

It only needs to be short about 1% each year. Compounding is a bitch.

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