SS COLA history:
CPI history, the last col is percentage increases:
Just eyeballing both since 2000, they look quite similar, COLA certainly not consistently undershoot by 1% or more. Some years COLA actually overshot. I didn’t plug into Excel to crank out the cumulative but I don’t think it will give you a whopping 36% undershot.
Hmmm, his acts are hated by investors, but doing a good job for the country on the whole trying to fight with inflation once for all.
I lived with inflation for a long time and thrived. There will always be winners and losers. The worst part this was government caused inflation… and yet no one in government will suffer the consequences
The same politicians who caused the inflation are now ragging on Powell for trying to contain it.
Avian flu outbreaks are becoming more frequent and are getting deadlier - the result of USDA’s insane policy of preventing herd immunity from ever developing. Normally, with something like this, it would rip through a flock but leave a few resistant birds alive to breed. USDA mandates that if you have a million chickens and just one comes down with it you need to euthanize all of them. Nutso.
May get a 2 handle sooner than most expected.
Don’t be surprise that inflation would resume climbing.
It did in Engand after they seemed to have it under control.
Don’t be surprised if inflation keeps on falling.
“Secular inflation”. LOLZ.
The fed literally contradicts itself on the regular. Inflation is already on a downward trajectory. Powell is on record saying there’s a 6 month lag between a rate increase and the impact on the economy. That means the November 0.75% increase is just starting to impact and the 1.25% since then aren’t having an impact yet.
Some people say it’s a 12-18 month lag. If they are right, then we are only starting to feel the first two increases of this cycle.
That doesn’t even include the lag in the housing data the fed uses to calculate inflation which is over stating inflation and not reflection to true pace of the drop.
At this point, pretending the fed has anything to do with data is laughable. They’re a full on clown car production of academic idiots.
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2022 is the year of inflation. Yet prices of RE decline.
Semantics engineering.
Fed officials are indicating that there will be no rate increase in June. Market expectations got repriced on Friday in response to Fed signals.
Definitely seeing inflation dropping and interest rates killing deals. Anecdotally….Eggs at $.99. Jimmy Dean Sausage at $3.24.
No 5 units and above multi family on the market in Tahoe. Deals are not going on.
Cap rates rising. MF financing at 6.7%. Was 5.5% a few months ago.
SBA loans at 9% are going to kill a lot of business formation.
Powell could kill the economy in a year at this rate. Or change his mind…
Looks like a pause or whatever fancy term they will use is the consensus. Fed officials are all coming out to do the prep work.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he could support holding interest rates steady at the central bank’s next meeting to give officials more time to assess the effects of past rate increases and the inflation outlook.
“I’m open to the idea that we can move a little bit more slowly from here,” he said in an interview Friday.
So do the bears still insist the market will go lower this year?
Don’t call it a pause. Don’t say we are done. Ok. Whatever you want bro.
“I would object to any kind of declaration that were done. If the committee chooses to skip a meeting because we want to get more information, I could make the argument why that makes sense,” Kashkari said. “A skip to get more information is very different in my mind than [saying], ‘Hey, we think we’re done.’”
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I notice visible less customers in restaurants and frequent relatively large discount in apparel. Also, rent is slowing down… recent renewal is done at par (no change from last year).
Other than inflation, could it be Apr Tax income tax shock? Or reverting to norm after revenge spending?
Statistically, people have spent the surplus savings from Covid lockdowns. Now they are borrowing to spend. At some point, they had to start spending less. Also, student loan payments resume soon.
