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Don’t think so.
Market’s inflation prediction has been wrong for the last 15 years. Doesn’t have a great track record. Is this time different?
That’s an insane statement. Inflation will get WORSE with more people working.
Inflation can’t get hold without rise in wages. Wage is nothing but price of labor. So more supply of labor should lower the price the labor.
More people working should lower inflation. But then you can get into the knocked off effect of more people making money means more spending power etc. But the first order effect is still that more people working should lower inflation.
How are we going to get a higher supply of labor?
There’s already a record 8M jobs open (eg. way more demand for labor than supply). As those get filled and people work, then they will spend more money. That’ll create more demand and more inflation.
Like I mentioned earlier in the thread, ratio of employment to population is still low. We have many people not working yet due to a variety of reasons. Some may be getting fat UI, some may not be able to find childcare due to school and daycare center closure, some may be afraid of health risks, etc etc. As we go back to normalcy these short term limitations will be gone, fairly quickly in fact.
Seriously, why would the economy of 2021 be significantly hotter than that of 2019, besides the short term bounce back from Covid? Because of low interests rate? The two rounds of massive Covid rescue plans have already come and gone.
The labor force participation rate has been in secular decline since 2000… I guess you think the number of people who will re-enter the workforce will exceed the 8M open jobs making supply greater than demand. That doesn’t align with what’s happening where every day another company announces hiring bonuses and/or higher starting wages to attract employees.
What secular decline?
a) Employment-population ratio has been rising since 2010, and
b) we aren’t even back to pre-Covid level.
There’s still a lot of slack in the labor market. Unless you think the 6.1% unemployment rate is fake news:
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Huh? Which part of the curve are you looking at? Labor shortages or labor oversupply?
In labor shortages, wage needs to rise to increase labor supply.
Do you just not see the peak of the graph in 2000? We keep making lower highs and lower lows. You can literally draw channels on the top and bottom of it.
Inflation isn’t connected to the unemployment rate. We saw little of it at 3.5% and plenty of it in the late 70’s/early 80’s at much higher unemployment rates. Going back further we had zero inflation at points in time prior to the word “unemployment” being part of the American lexicon.
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Don’t blame the Fed for your chicken shortage. Turns out it’s a bad rooster.
Plywood was $16/sheet now $96. Inflation is so severe in the construction business there will never be affordable housing built. In fact the whole Biden infrastructure program is in jeopardy due to hyper inflation. A lot of it caused by inflated fuel costs which percolate through the whole economy. Trumps tariffs aren’t helping either.
It currently impossible to bid a project. Nobody knows what the materials will cost. Plus subs are charging outrageous prices. They don’t care if they get the job or not.
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Good time for those who have RE 
Don’t tell @manch, he said he planned to get out of RE… not sure whether he had sold any… usually NATO… no action talk only.
This is good time to do nothing. Biden has created a lot of uncertainty. Not good for the markets. But RE seems to be in a sea change. The Millennials are buying. They are feed by the Fed, boomer money, FOMO, plus shortages of everything will cause panic buying. Seems a lot like the early 70s when the boomers inflated the housing market and everything else except stocks.
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Good to know. Hodl RE.
It is now Biden’s Tariffs.
When nobody wants a higher price, the demand will drop and so will prices. Or the demand will scale down if the prices stay up.
Looks like people got lot of money but not buying power.
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That applies to builders only. The result is housing price continues to MOON! due to reduced inventory because of reduced supply from new construction.
Lumber future limit down today. The whole thing looks like a blowoff top.
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Lumber trader:
Like he said at what level lumber price will normalize going forward is key.