Dollar crashed through 90 this morning.
Remember when Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and there was all the crying about the violence that’d occur. There was no violence. Now we have this.
Turns out people have zero respect, fear, or whatever you want to call it with Biden. Add this to N Korea resuming rocket testing, and Russia military build up on the Ukraine border.
I hope all the people that voted based on their sensitive feelings are happy now. They don’t have someone upsetting them with Twitter comments anymore. They just have a country that’s actually a complete train wreck and a joke instead. Their feelings are safe though, so I’m sure they feel great.
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Are you saying you’d rather have the economy of May 2020?
This is the laziest analysis I have seen. You are basically saying unless something has an effect at time T+0, it doesn’t have any effect at all.
Everyone was betting in May 2020 that things would get better. That is is why the stock market boomed. Now bets are going the other way. In May 2020 there was nowhere to go but up. Now we have uncertainty. Biden is terrorizing the market with outrageous tax increases. The Fed is killing the dollar for no reason and savers have nowhere safe to invest
except RE. So people are doing stupid stuff like buying Dogecoin and vintage Porsches.
I just tried to buy a tear down in Tahoe. Unlivable. Empty for twenty years. Went way over asking with multiple offers. It is the 1970s all over again
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Yeah, I’m sure all the events happening now that Biden is president are just unrelated coincidence. Maybe you should read a little about the current conflict. If you think it’s related, then I’m not really sure what to say.
The Israeli conflict could end in another Arab oil embargo. Deja Vu. I vividly remember the gas lines caused directly by war in Israel.
The Israel and Palestine conflict has literally been going on for thousands of years. It started in the Roman Empire time. The Israelis got chased away from their land, other people settled in and they both have rightful claims to the same piece of land. I don’t understand all the details either, but I know enough to understand why Jerusalem is such a hot button sensitive issue.
US may buy through Swiss. Swiss/Norway/Belgium/UK are some of the biggest buyers of US financial assets.but its all digital. I dont think US sale any physical minerals on big scales.
After soldiers now convicts. This trend is accelerating transportation away from US Naval power. that will undermine dollar. this raise the prices of freight to US continent for both export and import.
Europe will get more and more depended on Asia as Europe moves towards digital economy creating virtual products.
Lumber futures is still crashing.
But now we’re energy independent - a net exporter.
Oh wait…
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Hhhyperflation!
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New deck - here I come. 
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The cash price needs some time to catch up. Futures has more room to fall me think… Wouldn’t be surprised it goes all the way below 1k.
Lower productivity is inflationary…
I’m super confused though. Supposedly, millennial are bigger in numbers than baby boomers. They are entering the household formation years of their lives. They are marrying, buying homes, having kids, etc. All those things drive consumption. It’s why people are bullish on RE. That seems to directly conflict with aging demographics. I’m not sure how baby boomers aging outweighs millennials. Plus, didn’t you just post the article about how boomers are aging in place or upgrading to bigger homes? That’s the exact opposite of that tweet.
Never mind we are now normalizing pay for doing nothing. That’s VERY inflationary since people get money to create demand without having to produce anything.
Lower productivity is inflationary, yes. But our productivity is rising, not falling. She’s talking about global productivity, not domestic. I have no idea if it’s falling or rising.
RE price is the price of an asset. It only factors into inflation indirectly thru rent. Just like you should look at the price of an iPhone, not the price of AAPL stock, you shouldn’t look at the sale price of houses for inflation.
Aging demographics is deflationary. Older people spend less, which means velocity of money will be lower.
Labor market will return to normal by Labor Day. Most if not all the emergency UI will have been phased out, we will have achieved herd immunity, and everything like schools and maybe even cruises will be fully reopened.
So you’re sticking to the aging demographics despite millennials having more numbers than boomers and millennials hitting their peak consumption years.
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Millennials are larger in population
At the same age, Millennials spent more money than boomers
TBP: I believe, at present, $ spent per millennial is more than the reduced spending by boomer
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But as Millenials age so do the rest of us. The US is getting older, not younger.
Gen y and z are 160 million. Their growth in spending will dwarf any slowdown in boomers spending. This ain’t the roaring 20’s, it is the scary 70’s. Watch out for stock crashes. RE will skyrocket. Shortages and price hikes will be the norm.
Productivity will plunge. Watch a boomer tradesman work compared to a 20 something. Five times the output. I can’t find any young people that can work hard and efficiently in construction. They just want to sit in front of a computer. My neighbor hired a couple of youngsters… they had never used a shovel before. Had bloody hands in one hour.
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