Secular inflation is here

Context:

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1371953717314949121?s=21

its because they ignored it and downplayed it. Their leader is very much like Trump

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Depends which prices you’re looking at. The premium for physical over spot is crazy. Contracts drop; physical barely budges. Bullion is still in the $1850-$1950 an ounce range.

Very hard to correlate policies with results when it comes to COVID. Remember all the fuss over Sweden? In terms of deaths per million they don’t even make the top 20. England is getting killed and took fairly strong measures as did France which also got clobbered. If you get more granular Florida’s relaxed approach beat New York’s draconian approach despite all the oldsters in Florida.

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It’s partially cultural. Brazil and Italy both hit hard. Large families. They hug and kiss very little social distancing. All locked down together. Basically their own homes were covid19 hotspots. Plus Brazil has poor medical infrastructure.

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True. And Swedes are tough healthy people who spend a lot of time outdoors. They’re getting in a little cross country skiing after work while we toss back beers in front of the TV. Hard to louse that up.

You need to compare to cultural neighbors.

Sweden is an embarrassment compared to Norway, Denmark, and Finland.

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Lol. You trust data from China but not the publicly traded US companies. Carry on then.

…who are ALL very low compared to just about everyone else.

Yup.

Those cargo trains pass through several countries with customs check. these are physical products.
As i mentioned before people who have spent whole life in virtual world. they cannot comprehend reality. just stay tuned for railway and aviation industry.

Its all about connecting Europe to China. now Saudis have joined. .Saudis make boat load of money in US markets. (they own refineries and investments) and than subsidize cargo from China to Europe.

one more thing add to inflation. importing from europe will be too costly to replace Canadian.

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The secular bull market from 1949 to 1966 happened when yield was marching upward. In the secular bull from 1982 to 2000 yield was marching down. Whether yield goes up or down has little bearing on market’s long term trajectory.

In fact the period from 49 to 66 was arguably better: economy grew fast, US was in a building boom and wages grew gangbuster. Contrast that with the bull from 82 to 00 which was much more driven by rising corporate profit at the expense of the middle class.

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Cash is trash :slight_smile:
Diversification: Currency diversification, country diversification, asset diversification.

Dalio is often wrong.

He’s wrong on his 1982 depression call. He’s wrong on his 1992 bond outperformance call. He’s again wrong in 2015.

But that doesn’t stop the YouTube snake oil salesmen from using his name to pump up business.

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I see you are the type when first throw is head, 2nd throw is head, 3rd throw is head,… you would say 4th throw is a head.

Are you implicitly assuming Dalio’s predictions are independent events like coin flips?

Or rather, a person who has a history of giving bad advices is pretty likely to give out bad advice in the future.

That is a bad assumption.

Well, that’s how our society works. If a person has bad credit history because he skipped some bills in the past, banks tend to think he’s of higher credit risk.

Maybe you have a very good heart and would hire people with criminal history to look after your wife and kids? Not me though.