False. Rates going up are a lagging indicator of inflation. Inflation doesn’t increase without wage growth which means people can afford higher payments.
Let’s do a math exercise in monthly payments, just looking back 5 years, and looking ahead 5 more
5 years ago:
Entry level desirable SFH in RBA cost $2M.
Down payment (25%) = $500k
Loan = $1.5M
If locked at 2.5% fixed rate, monthly payment = $6000, tax =
$2000. Total PITI = $8000 per month
Income needed to qualify: $300k per year
Today:
Same Entry level desirable SFH in RBA cost $3M
Down payment (25%) = $750k
Loan = $2.25M
If locked at 3% fixed rate, monthly payment = $9500, tax =
$3000. Total PITI = $12500 per month
50% more than 5 years ago.
Income needed to qualify: $450k per year
But income only went up 15% (companies gave 3% average annual raise)
Fast forward 5 years:
Same Entry level desirable SFH in RBA cost $4M, thanks to inflation
Down payment (25%) = $1M
Loan = $3M
If locked at 5% fixed rate, monthly payment = $16000, tax = $4000. Total PITI = $20000 per month
That’s another increase of 60%
Income needed to qualify: $750k per year
Thanks to inflation, assume companies will give 5% annual raise - so income goes up 25%.
I don’t think incomes can keep up with the increase of home price and interest rates. Something has to break…
Go ahead and find one year in history where interest rates went up and median home price declined. You won’t find it. I did all the research in 2010 when all the bears were saying home prices would decline when interest rates were increased.
You are probably right, I don’t deny. But this double whammy of increase in interest rate and increase in price will have a really bad effect on homebuyers. Especially in the Bay Area, it will make a bad situation much worse…
My comments are referring to investment property: I have never care about the trend of interest rate when buying houses. Prefer to look at price trend of houses and sentiments. Going to open houses would tell you whether the market is heating up or cooling. With Covid be creative I guess
For owner-occupied: Just buy whatever house you like to live in, so long within your budget. Ignore the trend.
True, the price of gas, milk, coffee, cars and restaurant take out are all increasing. We are screwed unless employers give us substantial raise next year
…which will only further feed inflation. Rising wages are not a cure for inflation - they’re one of the causes unless productivity increases at the same rate or faster.
Of course those of us with equity, either in companies or real estate, will gain in nominal terms and at least stay even in real terms. But everyone else is hosed. The gap between rich and poor will turn into a yawning chasm.
Agreed, it will become more difficult for new workers starting out in their careers to establish their families by buying houses and accumulating assets in expensive areas like Bay Area or NYC metro area. Eg., Only the best of the best, who will be the techies in the highest 10% or so compensation bracket, will be able buy RBA SFHs. It will no longer be affordable to average dual career engineer couples.
I just came back from my Florida vacation so my memory is a bit hazy now. However I believe I saw regular boneless+skinless thighs at 1.99/lb a few weeks ago.