He’s clearly hoping for this, so that his hide is saved in the midterms.
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gas prices go up
democrats: so just drive less
food prices go up
democrats: so just eat less
I find that amazing. Rick Newman was anti-Trump to the point it was insanely irrational. He was so hopeful and optimistic when Biden took over. Now he realizes Biden and democrats are bumbling idiots. Biden’s approval rating is now worse than Trump’s ever was. Consumer sentiment is the lowest on record (data goes back to 1977). It’s amazing to think all the huge economic events over that time period and sentiment is the lowest now.
GDP almost immediately bounced back from the covid drop. Q1 was -5.1%, Q2 was -31.2% and Q3 rebounded with 33.8% growth followed by 4.5%. Q1 came in at 6.3%. All that needed to be done was not self-destruct, and they managed to self-destruct.
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In my view, these guys are not idiots(Rick Newman & others). However, they don’t really say what they believe and they’re very good at writing convincingly on any topic on any side even if they are opposite to each other. They can say “Sun rises on the West” or “East” depending on the goals. The motivations of doing that? Mostly what the Boss/Publication wants him/them to write. So, anti-Trump, anti-Biden, pro-Biden, I don’t think is coming from them “realizing he was wrong or right”.
I’m sure they follow the mood of the country some. They need people to click on the articles to make money.
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Why would an oil company make new investments? Joe has told them they will be out of business by 2030/35.
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I hate to say this but I’m still on the Google group for the CA town I left and there is a third possibility.
Voters really are that dumb.
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its lowest recorded value, comparable to the trough reached during the middle recession of the recession in the 1980s.
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They could do 0.75% or even 1.0%. Three straight 0.5% hikes are priced in, so they could go bigger than 0.5% and get to 1.5% higher faster. They can also get more aggressive with the balance sheet reductions.
The fed has been wrong for a LONG time now. They are also terrified of anything that would surprise the market. They don’t make a move until it’s priced into the market. At that point, what value is the fed offering? They are just moving rates once it is the consensus of the market.
I don’t know why we’re even debating rate hikes and their presumed efficacy in fighting inflation. We needed 18% the last time this happened and we’ve buried the nation in so much debt that that’s impossible now.
Rate hikes may kill the market but they will have no discernible effect on inflation at even the highest levels being discussed.
Inflation isn’t good for anyone except landlords and people with low interest loans.
It will be interesting to see how high we need to go this time around. IMO most of the inflation we’re seeing right now is coming from the supply side e.g. energy shortages due to the situation in Ukraine, supply chain shortages due to Covid lockdowns, etc. My intuition is that the work from home phenomenon together with a ‘wealth effect’ and strong labor market has led to decreased employee engagement/productivity overall across the economy but I have no data to back that up.
To kill inflation we either need massive demand destruction, which is hard with energy because it is so inelastic, or increases on the supply side. Tight spot! Personally I think Powell is going to have to break the strong labor market and push us into recession to have sufficient impact on demand. Sayonara WFH.
In the United states the labor force reached a high of 164.6 million people working in February 2020 just before the Pandemic got into full swing.
Statistics on remote workers reveal that more than 4.7 million people work remotely at least half the time in the United States. 44% of companies do not allow remote work and only 16% of companies hire remote only workers.
Globally, 16% of companies are fully remote according to an Owl labs study. This same study found that about 62% of workers aged 22 to 65 claim to work remotely at least occasionally.
This study also found that 44% of companies do not allow remote work of any kind.
When Larry Summers predicted Inflation in early 2021, there was none of these stuff. His view was/is that inflation is due to excess demand of 1.5 times the GDP gap which was created by the stimulus . According to him, the factors which you have pointed out have added to inflation due to the stimulus passed in early 2021.
And following is what he said at that time which I had posted before on this thread.
- Personally I have no data/experience which would suggest WFH is bad for productivity.
- My view is companies for which resources are not plenty would be more relaxed in WFH.
- The opposite view for companies which have excess resources or maybe invested in RE in and around Commercial RE.
- In the long term many companies which have excess resources currently will be resource deficient/constrained (which is natural and normal for any business long term), and if #1 is correct such companies will have to change their spending habits which include opting for WFH.
I agree with your part of the post where Powell might need to create a short recession.
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I’m honestly amazed at the consumer. The government is going to spend ~$1.9T less this year. That alone should trigger us into a recession. However, consumer spending is up 3.7% yr/yr. That’s crazy, since people aren’t receiving stimulus money to spend. People are using savings or adding debt to spend even more than they spent last year. There was a big jump in CC debt, so that’s definitely part of it. At what point do people realize their financial habits are insane and pull back on spending? I don’t buy that the whole increase is gas and food. There’s still a ton being spend on dining out, travel, clothing, etc.
I think people get used to have certain things. They feel that is their lifestyle. With inflation, it costs more to have the same. People don’t want to cut back. They want the same things, and they don’t care if it takes debt to have it. The debt people are adding now is only going to make recovery slower and worse.
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Double edged sword 
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USA Consumer Economy , so consumer spending can be either good or bad depending on broader economic conditions and goals for the economy for the Fed.
We’re in a stagflation, not recognized as such because of the definition.
That’s what I read.
Re-opening effect. All the restaurants I went are very crowded.
The only solution is to increase productivity 
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You have a valid point. USD is very strong, so should have counter the rising cost of import. The inflation is generated internally in USA.