Secular inflation is here

Screen Shot 2022-08-19 at 3.58.32 PM

That’s what I thought too. No creative people in Fed?

As a manager and investor, I would argue that unemployment is currently too low. An excessively tight labor market makes it harder for businesses to execute and cuts into the bottom line.

You can recruit from overseas :slight_smile: In any case, I doubt high unemployment refers to SWEs.

We have a department onsite next month. Leadership is terrified of upsetting employees. They are constantly saying it is optional, and people don’t need to attend if it’ll be difficult or inconvenient for them. I guess I’m lucky that my whole team is going except the one on a 4 month paternity leave. We just had someone on another team come back from paternity leave and resign within a month of returning. That’s pretty cold.

2 Likes

What firm?

A 4 month paternity leave?! I have three kids and never took off more than two weeks. I don’t know how businesses survive with this level of perks.

The 2021 labor market was easily the strongest I’ve seen in my career. Basically impossible to hire anyone decent. Huge amount of title and salary inflation to try to poach mediocre talent from other companies.

Inflation is a lot worse that CPI reported. If you want a special item the sky is the limit. I bought this 2017 for $507 including tax now over $900 with tax. Groceries and gas fluctuate. Specific items like this will never go down in price.

1 Like

Another example. When I worked building office and multi family, elevators up 5 stories cost $50k. I was just quoted $400k to retrofit one on a 3 story apartment building in Tahoe. My guess is cities will start requiring them all 5 unit buildings and bigger. At $400k each minimum

The Sushi place I go to doesn’t re-print menus when prices go up anymore. They just use black pen that I’m guessing wipes off with alcohol when items go up another buck or two.

It’s funny what Europe is doing to itself.

1 Like

“Green energy levy.” Coming to our shores soon. And we think we have inflation problems NOW.

Chik-fil-a is hiring at $22/hr. My first job was $4.25/hr. Granted, the Big Mac meal was $2.99 back then. Gas was just over $1.00/gallon. Little Caesar’s had 2 medium pizzas for $7.99.

No staff shortage at Chick Fil A. I wonder why…

I’m only getting $18 base + a few bucks in tips right now at my kitchen job.

$6 for a large pepperoni pizza at Little Caesars is still a good deal.

3 Likes

$18/hr… you are hired, can you do farm work?

If I was closer, I would. :slight_smile:
We were farmers in China but it’s different kind of farming here. But I’ll show up, no drama, and just do the work.

Good help is hard to find.

Over time, I’m going dial it down to ~24hrs/week.

Winter is coming.

Current decline in CPI and PCE could be temporary due to massive release of oil reserve from the emergency reserve. After Nov 8 midterm + winter, gas prices may shoot up again after the release is paused, worse start buying back. Fed should have visibility of how much of gas prices have worked into the prices of products and services. Hence, Fed has to talk hawkish. However, we know is unlikely Fed would hike more than 4% because of huge government loan + psychology of inflation, Fed should talk hawkish, and hopefully act dovish.

2 Likes

AMC apes are going to be slaughtered. Nobody goes to movies anymore.
Turn cinemas into homeless shelters

1 Like