Secular inflation is here

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I understand.

The only way I’m willing to eat fast food is when I have coupons. I can’t ever pay retail for it.

I am going on a diet. No fast food and no booze. Love In n Out. Hate McDonald’s. But that food is for teenagers not old men like me. The higher the wages the less employees… will be replaced by automation. If fast food is no longer cheap or fast … people will eat somewhere else . Probably more home prepared meals.

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Means no life. Sad…

Paid $3.96 for 2 McChickens and 10 pieces of nuggets

I’m all set for calories and salt for the next couple of days.

Fed 2 people. We shared a Safeway peach for “dessert” :joy:

How about taco trucks? How much is a burrito nowadays? The super burrito shop I went to in San Jose sells a freaking large burrito for 10 bucks. Tastes much better than anything from Big M.

Vietnamese sandwich from Lee’s costs about $7. Again beats anything from Big M.

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He won’t live longer. It will just feel that way :slight_smile:

Face Ripper:

“42% of CPI components are declining from recent highs = deflation,” Lee said, adding that five of the nine US regions saw outright deflation in July on a month-over-month basis.

“These 5 regions represent 49% of GDP. In East North Central, CPI annualized is -3.96%, outright DEFLATION,” Lee said.

Additionally, leading inflation indicators like used auto prices, airfares, and real estate “suggest many other components of CPI could start falling outright,” according to Lee.

Inflation? What inflation?

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He keeps saying this but the market keeps diving! Last year, he is bullish towards year end, wrong. History rhymes?

If inflation cools and is less “sticky” than most expect, it could change the Fed’s current interest rate hike trajectory, ultimately leading to a faster pivot towards a pause in rate hikes.

So what? Fed wants to see consecutive 3 months of CPI decline. Even if Aug CPI decline, Fed would still hike rate by 0.75%.

0.75% Guaranteed rate hike, but they may hike 1% too as they stop raising rates until Jan 2023 ! The surprise factor is additional killer.

Regarding Lee or any other hedge funds leaders bullish or bearish talks: They appear on TV to market their funds as publicity and they do not need to tell truth. They can tell anything for publicity but behave any way in real world fund. They do not give any free advice.

Assume that financial world is filled with legal criminals and they are telling you right or wrong and you can not believe them.

Just follow FED moves or overall economics news or do fundamentals of some companies you like, go along with it.

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Rising rates today is once again propelling the dollar higher. The Euro is now below parity.
A super strong dollar relative to other currencies in a slowing world economy is going to kill exports.

Never underestimate the hypocrisy and stupidity of the Democrats

On Wednesday, the California Independent System Operator (ISO), the nonprofit organization tasked with maintaining reliable energy on behalf of customers, issued two calls for California residents to reduce their energy consumption to avoid blackouts. The first of these “Flex alerts” asked California residents to conserve their energy use during peak from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Wednesday. The second “Flex alert” issued on Wednesday asked California residents to conserve energy during the same hours on Thursday.

Meanwhile they are forcing EVs on us without building the added 30% of generation capacity needed for their little “green”darlings …these idiots need to build 3 more Diablo Canyon cousins instead of just begrudgingly allowing it to continue for only five years.

At least so far we have barely survived another hot summer.
There should be a massive Manhattan type project to increase electric generation production nationwide. Build 50 nuclear power plants along with wind solar and another 50 dams for hydro. Otherwise EVs are useless

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“They will over tighten, because they were VERY late to start it. Now they have to over correct. Even Powell said there’s a lag between a rate increase and the impact on the economy. That’s why I think rate increases will stop sooner than most think. Inflation has the potential to unwind VERY quickly given the inventory situation. Companies keep using the “supply chain” excuse for poor sales. Soon, we will see who’s swimming naked and lying about it. Target and Walmart already confessed to having massive inventory levels that need corrected.”

That’s from 28 days ago…. It’s literally playing out. Inflation is starting to unwind at a fast pace.

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https://www.lowes.com/pd/Common-2-in-x-8-in-x-16-ft-Actual-1-5-in-x-7-25-in-x-16-ft-2-Treated-Lumber/50017310

Those were $49.98 each in May. They are $32.78 now. That’s a crazy drop over a short time period.

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Fast is not good enough. Has to be below Fed rate.

It will by Q4. The yr/yr compare is off of a higher base in Q4 of last year.

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We are far from 2% that Fed wants. I bet next CPI print will stay high. Housing cost inflation has not yet shown up in CPI which is the biggest component. CPI will remain high for several months.

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