Market expectation of CPI on Sep 13.
Headline 8.1%
Core 6.1%
I’ll take the under on both.
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Core was 5.9% for Jul CPI. Market was expecting 0.2% increase.
Are you expecting to be lower than 6.1% or 5.9%?
I still can’t find how they determine the price when sales are buy one get a second item at a discount. I’m not sure if they take the price of the first item or average of the two. If they do the latter, then it’ll definitely decline sequentially.
Btw, PCE usually lags Headlines by 3 months. So if Headline Jul CPI is the peak, Oct PCE should be the peak. If Aug PCE prints lower than 5.9, market would go wild.
Economists love to confuse the public.
Rate of growth
Positive = inflation
Slower positive rate of growth = disinflation
Negative = deflation
Slower rate of decline = ?
Acceleration?
Deceleration?
He’s probably right. I’m not sure how people think it could be higher than last month.
I found some Olympus Altra trail running shoes for $124 this morning; I have paid nearly $170 for them in the past. Also Pet Mountain as having a sale so I picked up two years worth of supplies I don’t need now but will. Sales are out there; I dropped $1000 this morning. Another aspect is the constant shortages; one needs to have at least a year or two of essentials because you just never know when something might be out of stock for months and months.
Dividends will still increase this year, though only a little, and the yield on the 10% of so of cash I keep is way, way up so as my net worth falls at least the income the portfolio generates continues to rise.
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In the long run, everything is transitory. 
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