Why would that be depression? Stocks don’t decide whether we are in depression. Stocks and asset prices are literally inversely proportional to interest rates given constant earnings.
Very bad earnings decline would bring GSPC down to this level (2018 for those who didn’t follow conversation).
Not for cash rich companies. Many of the stocks in GSPC are cash rich vs many stocks in Nasdaq which are no earning and cash poor. Cash rich when high interest rate means high interest income. That is why I mean when talking about stock market, we always mean GSPC.
International is already at 2018 levels. RE is basically there as well in the Bay Area (for the few properties that are selling). S&P 2900? I don’t think we quite get all the way down there, but it’s certainly possible.
WTF are you talking about? A short squeeze is when the market goes up, then it goes up even more as short sellers are forced to buy and cover their shorts.
First, this is simple to answer. You have unlimited time to blog or watch market.
But, I have stressful 9-5 job like driving on highway. Whenever I need some relaxation from work, I visit blog as stress relief, read or blog for fun.
Yes, Always GSPC as market. It depends on what FED is going to do.
All trading/speculation are by wall street funds, but not by institutions. To understand how institutions work, you need to read about “Market structure and how they operate”. This is what I said => Lot of assumptions.
I actually know economics which is why I know you’re mixing and confusing things. It’s amusing to watch but terrifying if people actually believe that garbage.
Short squeezes last days. They aren’t a few hours. The market is down today. We aren’t even close to a short squeeze. It’d last much longer and prices would go up more.
Practically impossible to have many days of short squeeze on index related ETFs like SPY/QQQ.
You are thinking short squeeze many days, but not few hours as if SPY or QQQ is like BBBY (example only).
BBBY is 684M Mcap with 39% shorted. Some hedge funds can do this.
SPY is 350B and 24B average volume. In addition, plenty of ETFs/other funds are linked to SPX. When SPX moves up and down, each ETFs/other funds are moving algorithmically to match. It needs enormous amount of cash to short such big ETFs like SPX/NDX.
No single hedge fund can do this. Billion dollar hedge funds go for investment side hedging, but not index level shorting.
Indexes like SPX or NDX are real selling or real buying (even with millions of calls or puts).
It is again big subject which I do not want to go endlessly.
Market is different, ahead in the game. Market will go deep negative (over correct) before GDP reaches that bottom and vice versa.
I have many times indicated market is going 1-A-B-C cycle of EW. I have even uploaded screen shot comparing 2007-2009 to 2021-2022(23).
IMO, Point A is Jun 16th, Point B is Aug 16th, Calculate Point C and that point C will be below Point A.
It is possible to reach that level, but never know when. Time will tell us when.
Why do you feel now (this recession) market already completed lowest when FED is still trying to address inflation by increasing the rate?
By the way, you have seen 2000 and 2008 (and even 2020) market stopped lowest with circuit breaker came in. The day will come and every one will be crying madly/scolding J Powell !!
We have not come to such a nasty situation yet. I am waiting for such a day without which I am not convinced a bottom reached.
Again think at 100000 feet level and you will understand the economic and stock issues.