Secular inflation is here

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Too Young !

Shiller PE still looks elevated.

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Earning will take a dive next.


PE = 1/ 10-year T so doesn’t look elevated

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I honestly wonder how they compile the survey. Everyone is starting to talk about food prices are lower, but the Fed data says they were 0.8% higher in August vs. July and 11.3% yr/yr. Just groceries which is a subset of food increased 0.7% and 13.5%. This is why I have questions about how sale prices (especially sales prices tied to buying multiple quantities) are measured by the fed. Something here doesn’t add up.

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Climbing Housing Costs Could Prop Up Inflation for a While

Economists say rents will eventually moderate. Question is when?

Gas prices going up again in CA.

Biden has extended the SPR drawdown to November now. Earlier it was supposed to end in October. Just want to get past the midterms and then he can coast again till the next elections.

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Gas has edged up here in AZ as well even though it seems oil has been fairly stable. Cheapest was $3.69; now $3.92 or so.

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One of the few times I’ll be happy to have the weirdness of living in a town on piped propane which follows the price of oil. That will go up after the election but not as much as natural gas has.
Of course the electricity to run the blowers will get more expensive. Sadly, Arizona has gone from getting about one quarter of its electricity from coal in 2017 to only 13% today with natural gas now accounting for over 40%.

@hanera We are within a percent of June low, most likely we will close today past that. How much more is still to be seen but I guess S&P will hit 2018 lows easily. We are still in the mother of all bubbles territory. Never say never :-).

Fed did increase terminal rate by 0.5.

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Gas Prices in California Rising Fast, Almost $2 More Than National Average

I go by McDonald’s on my way to the dog park. The sign always has the current hiring pay. It was $20/hr, and they reduced it to $17.75. The labor crunch appears to be easing.


Gas prices are an input cost for all transportation and so if gas prices go up either margins are squeezed or cost and hence selling prices will have to be increased.

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