No good deals.
Retailers Still Have a Lot of Extra Stuff That Shoppers Don’t Want
Excess merchandise, weaker consumer demand to fuel promotions
Off-price sellers win as brands seek buyers for unwanted goods
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This should be the start of inflation collapsing. That’s a HUGE drop in demand over a very short time period.
- U.S. shippers are seeing a 20% drop in ocean freight orders.
- The declines include machinery, household products, industrial products and some apparel.
- Ocean carriers are canceling as much as 50% of sailings to rebalance vessel capacity to demand.
- Freight prices on one key route from Asia to the West Coast are now down more than 80% from last year.
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Transportation is in free fall, and manufacturing is barely growing. The cost pressures are easing. This lowers inflation expectations and bond yields.
Massive increase in the price of my Tegu food. I just ordered 6 months worth. It now costs $723 to feed a big ole lizard from Argentina for 6 months.
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Wage spiral is on.
Job hop, 15.7% yoy pay jump
Remain at job, 7.8% yoy pay jump
No reason for Fed to be dovish
Biflation
Used cars deflating
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1578059385947017216?s=46&t=DbopN3gZlyR6wOjW3RjYYg
Based on this data alone if Fed is not corrupt to the teeth and serious about fighting inflation, they should hike by full 100 bp in an emergency meeting.
What’s more, Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Sept. 30 that California refineries can start switching production of the more-expensive, less-polluting summer blend to the to the less-expensive, more-polluting winter blend.
Is ok to pollute 
Fighting inflation is only a political cover. If that is the goal, Fed would have paused hiking and watch a few months instead of a series of 0.75% rate hikes. (Speculation) The real intent is to do away with cheap money and reduce wealth divide (end speculation). So stay with cash and watch house price and rent tumble to the level that your “poorer” fellow citizens can afford.
Come Q1 2023, Fed won’t be able to use inflation as a reason to hike. Have to see what Fed say in Nov and Dec FOMC.
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Yes that’s the plan. I doubt the rents will tumble in prime Bay Area as offices open up and people choose to rent instead of buy. I am getting crazy high number of applications on a few units that went vacant recently. Prices for sure will tumble, I would stay with my 50% drop prediction from ATH in Bay Area. I know there are many deniers, good luck and my best wishes to them.
You understood the FED motives perfectly. It has been long time they kept the rate low. If they wait for 3 or 6 months, they can not increase. Now, they want to increase faster so that they have leverage to cut later.
It is all about their control when government is in favor !
We are heading to 8% mortgage rate as many are now calling for 5% Fed terminal rete and as Fed continues to sell MBS. With tech stocks crashing, earnings crashing, layoffs ramping, and record high mortgage and inflation rates, we will see how long Bay Area RE bubble can hold. Will be fun to watch this senseless bubble pop. The best thing that would happen to Bay Area.
BTW Fed QT is going as planned and it is not going to stop at least until 2024. Buckle up.
That is a HIGH rate and really bad news for the economy overall. That’s the first clear sign that we might be going over a cliff.
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