We’re staring at another 0.75% in November for sure and maybe December too.
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The Fed has raised the fed funds target rate range to 3% to 3.25% since March, when it was zero to 0.25%. Economists expect policymakers could raise rates by at least another full percentage point before the end of the year.
“If CPI comes in strong, the markets will sell off. Equities won’t like it,” said Gapen. “If it comes in a little lower, they’ll say the labor market is still strong, they’re going to hike 75 [basis points].” Unless the report is a major miss to the downside, the markets will expect a three-quarter point rate hike, he said.
Current expectation.
Isn’t this person assuming output is constant and the only variable is price, and that’s why they think things are incorrect?
I don’t have much knowledge on this. Shared to learn from experts comments here. Would be great if you can explain more.
I think that’s what he’s doing. He’s pointing out that total output is falling while inflation is increasing and saying that can’t be correct. It is correct if companies are producing less units. That’s the whole point of supply chain issues. Less products are made due to constraints.
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After my trip to Home Depot yesterday to get some materials for a new project I can’t say that today’s data surprises me. At this point all one can hope for is that the materials one needs are available - at any price. I’ve taken to gluing pieces of plywood together to get the thickness I need.
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Wage spiral even for those no longer actively working.
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It’s addressing the wrong issue. Why is the government so inefficient at everyone, and why can’t they modernize within existing budgets? Once you start to understand that, then you realize less government is the solution. That or a complete overhaul of how success is measured for it.
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The inflation data is not as bad as reported by most media. Key thing is to look at MoM data, not YoY. There is also an increasing number of people realizing, and pointing out, that the rent part of the CPI data is extremely laggy. It basically tells us the rent and house price inflation we saw last summer. It’s not reflective of the current situation to say the least.
The Fed will most likely just do 75bps hike next month no matter what. But there is an increasing amount of pushback. The Fed is driving the economy into the ditch by looking at the rear mirror.
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MoM was 0.4% increase. That’s bad. If inflation has peaked, that’d be negative.
Speaking of lagging, more than half my tenants did not get any increases this year.
Need to get off this site and run my business better.
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