We are making progress. It has come down a lot from just a few months ago.
We have two lags to deal with here. There is a lag between Fed hike and its effect on inflation. The second lag is the data lag.
Here’s Redfin’s rent data:
Rent accounts for roughly 1/3 of core CPI, and it looks at rent paid by all tenants. So there are leases signed last summer that are still in the data. Private data shows the asking rent today.
Dude you have a drinking problem?
Yea probably, among many other problems. 
Liquor, beer, ice cream , and chocolate are all part of my healthy diet.
At least I’m maintaining my car, look I got new wipers! 
No, folk are buying up alcohol to use as barter for when dollars are useless.
But there are no better alternatives among the major currencies.
The euro? Lol
Yen? Lol
pound ? Lol
Yuan? Lol
I don’t have any gold or guns… will you take sone of my Bitcoin? 
Supply chain cannot catch a break.
I was in STL in late July. There were record rains and flooding. That’s crazy that now river levels are low.
I make my own wine… inflation fighter… French booze should be cheaper with the strong dollar. Lots of gouging going on. Rents have dropped about 10% since April in Tahoe… Still lots tenants per unit looking. I rented a 4/3 house for $4100/m in two days. Probably 5% below market … but I wanted the best tenant I could find and had more selection than If I listed it at $4500 and it sat for 30-60 days.
Pray we have a warm winter!
That has to be fake news. There’s no way we will have slightly colder weather.
Jason Furman swapped out the usual BLS measure with more timely Zillow data, and the new “what if” core CPI looks like this:
To recap, rent data in CPI looks at rent paid by ALL TENANTS, and then smooth it out over 6 months. Zillow is the new lease rent, but they also smooth it over 3 months. So Zillow (and other private sources like ApartmentList and Redfin) data is much more timely and relevant for the Fed.
If the Fed had used the more timely data they would have seen the inflation threat much, much sooner and be able to raise rates sooner and in smaller increments. Now they are poised to make the same mistake but in the reverse direction. They may tighten more than needed and fighting last year’s inflation threat that has already come and gone.
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Fed realized this.
Since they knew yet till aggressively hike implies there are other objectives.
No, I don’t subscribe to these conspiracy theories. Fed responds to narratives, and the current “your data is laggy” narrative is fast gaining momentum.
There was a recent academic paper going over this rent data lag issue. It has gotten a lot of attention among academics and even the vice Fed chair mentioned it in her recent speech. The lag issue wasn’t widely known but it is now. I expect the Fed will give it some weight in their meetings. 75 next meeting may still be locked in but there is a chance they may be more cautious afterward.
Perfect thinking ! They do their work, we need to do our work properly based on what they decide !
If they don’t realize a 6-month average won’t capture rapid changes, then WTF are they doing deciding economic policy? It’s just more proof of how ineffective and useless they are. It’s time to revive the Cramer, “They know nothing” rant. It’s just as relevant now as it was then.
Even a Phd is not enough to understand that 
Man sometimes I think you guys have a very low view of me…
@Roy321 thinks I’m suffering from depression because I post so often and you think I’m an alcoholic… Tough crowd here…
Oh well…Won’t stop me from oversharing 
The reason for so many bottles of 1.75L of alcohol is we’re having a party for my dad’s 70th birthday this weekend. We’re expecting over 100 people at the house. They usually have E&J brandy but I decided to splurge just a small bit.
Now with menu… @mcp don’t read further…
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We will have at least:
2 large roast pigs
5 ducks,
6 chickens,
pork bone soup,
bunch of veggies and
We are ordering some spicy/mala beef tendons and a tray each of noodles and fried rice. The seafood will be less than usual since some people have allergies (ABCs…)
Feel free to join us @manch. Please don’t bring baiju. That stuff is gross.
