Secular inflation is here

That’s non-sense. Biden was going to repair international relationships not make them worse.

We will know on Thursday whether Goldman is right or not. Huge if correct.

I don’t understand how the monthly number is increasing. The prices I see peaked back in April or May. The monthly should be declining. It must be the rent lag which makes it insane if they are basing policy decisions on a number with a 6-month lag.

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Appears to be shelter (including rent lag you refer to), transportation (+ new vehicles) and medical.

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IF

today’s lag is distorting(which is showing higher inflation than current)

THEN

yesterday’s lag was also distorting (which showed lower inflation).

Problem seems to be with the timing.

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That’s true but I think understanding current is more important, because that’s how policy is set. It could explain why the fed was so late to act though and inflation got so out of control.

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:+1:

CPI might have peaked in Jun 2022.
Oct 2022 might be the start of fast decline in CPI.

Next CPI is Dec 13.

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This is the index that Fed wants to reduce to 2% LT.

Core only increased 0.3%. Much better than even the Goldman estimate.

It’s indeed HUGE.

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“Price gouging” which is the main narrative out of the Governor in CA, and is now peddled nationally by certain brand of leaders as the reason for inflation. The reality as most well read, non ideologue, and non tribal people already know is totally the opposite.

Haven’t watched the video myself yet, but will do so later.

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Truflation is a real-time measure of inflation. A week ago it was 7.29%. Today:

Lowest YTD.

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The wholesale should be a leading indicator of consumer inflation by a couple of months. I’m starting to think 0.5% in December then a pause to let data catch up to the rate hikes.

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I’m confused by this, because I can get delivery next day now. It was a 2 week wait back in May. They haven’t added more delivery drivers either (at least not locally). The driver said he doesn’t even have a full day of deliveries anymore. It must be a lot of smaller sales of people going into stores to buy vs. bigger orders that have delivery.