SILVAR. How Tax Reform will Affect BA Real Estate


#82

2008 is the only drop over 10%.


#83

Yes, I am emphatic here. I am not telling like others, expecting growth in real estate, but seeing ground reality from my past bidding experiences.

When I saw endless crowd, many stock rich multi-millions people from major companies, is coming in 3411 Rayanna ave, I realized the competition.

Today DOW crossed 24000 mark. As long as stock market is going up, we will never see slack in bay area prices.

I have personally seen this bay area going up and up last 20 years, elt1 may be 40 years, never come down except economical crash. When crash came in year 2000, RE was down almost 10% in bay area, but in 2008 (RE down) it was 25% bay area, but 40% out skirts of bay area.

For sure, next recession we will not have like 2008 RE period. I have not seen any down trend between 1995 and now except two times.

When are the chances this economic crash happens? Likely in 2019 or later, but expecting any changes in 2018. S&P is expected to grow 16% or more next year.

**If there is a crash next year, I am definitely wrong, but my guess we will not have it next year (2018) **

Real estate may likely go up another 10% when S&P grows 16%.


#84

This post outlines your views more broadly and hence clearly, than just basing it on your personal RE transaction experience in Dec 2015.

Btw, I largely concur with your view on this post as far as Stock market is concerned. I don’t have that much understanding of how RE functions more so in Bay Area, so I don’t have much opinion on future of RE in Bay Area.


#85

If you are good at investing in bitcoins, no need to buy a home. When bitcoin reaches 1M, you can trade 2 coins for a house

What’s your expectation for the Bitcoin for the next 2 years? I hope I bought bitcoins instead of house


#86

LOL ! You are making him go bankrupt. LOL again, no offense both of you !!:rofl:


#87

It is simple supply and demand, but last 3 years lot of people reached millions/multi-millions cash by stocks. Most of the RBA sector was taken over by these Google, Facebook, Apple, Netflix…etc company employees.

As long as stocks are growing year over year, local people are getting rich year over year. Everyone needs a home and they do not mind selling high priced stocks to get one primary home (at whatever price).


#88

My comments were in “general” of economic theory and cycles.

If I could really predict the future economy with such accuracy I would be pulling in $5M+ in salaries on a hedge fund on Wall St and not giving out free “advices” on a RE forum. :slight_smile:


#89

What is RBA sector?


#90

Landed in 2002, so experienced only 2008-11 downturn, after 2011 is up until now.
Can’t buy in 2002 because no credit history, bought a townhouse in 2003, no market-timing, no access to any data anyway. Not sure why people want to time their purchase of owner-occupied house. Frankly, I don’t even know how long I will be here, didn’t even ask that question. Owned, period.

I learn not to be sure about anything.


#91

I placed an “if” to my statement. I’ll be clean if he invests in bitcoins irresponsibly and goes bankrupt!

He bought bitcoins in 2010 and so he will not go bankrupt if he does not buy more with debt


#92

By stocks I guess you mean stocks of Apple, Facebook, Google and Netflix. Given the vesting period of RSUs, I think those work there less than 5 years would have a hard time to buy in RBA, Concord :rofl: definitely. Double income might make it in less than 3 years.

Real Bay Area. Boundary changes through time.
Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos, Cupertino, Mountain View, West Sunnyvale, and West San Jose. Now should include all neighborhoods within 1 miles to Apple Park, and going to Cupertino School District.


#93

Agreed !


#94

I bought in North Fremont, all 3 good school districts in 2015. Now, I feel I should have bought in bad school districts in Sunnyvale??? :neutral_face:

Any of those SFH @1M? :slight_smile:


#95

Then there’s the issue of how many will have the guts to buy in the heart of the storm like 2009? History says very few people will. If people are too bearish now to buy, then there’s no way they’ll buy in a storm like that. They’ll talk a good game about it now though. Then after the storm is clear they’ll be talking about how they’ll buy the next downturn.


#96

Btw I bought lots of stocks in 2009!!


#97

I’m pretty sure lot of people who were leveraged to the hilt prior to 2008 were taken to the cleaners in 2008-2010.


#98

Statistically, you are right. The savings rate was actually negative right before the recession. People were spending and borrowing like crazy. That’s part of what made it so bad. People had less savings to fall back on.


#99

OK, you guys have convinced me. We will overbid and buy the most expensive house we can buy, leveraged to the maximum the bank will allow in order to multiply our gains. Very little risk based on historical data. Stocks will continue to go up, people will feel rich and keep on buying houses at higher and higher prices (probably 15-20% a year increase average, with a 1% downturn due to the North Korea nuclear strike of 2019) .

We will have 40 and 50 year mortgages to keep the payments low enough for two-techie homes to afford. Daycare bills will be rolled into the mortgage. Future RSUs will be considered as good as hard cash, since stocks only go up.

“blue collar” workers will be brought in from the nevada desert by hyperloop to fix our faucets for $1,000/hour and serve us $100 lattes

:-):grinning:


#100

Pay me $1000/hr plus airfare and I will fix your faucets…


#101

That definitely is clairvoyance!! :smile:

Buy buy everyone… the Califonia RE train is changing to bullet train…