SILVAR. How Tax Reform will Affect BA Real Estate


Isn’t Obamacare premium pretty low for you? I thought Obama asked young kids to subsidize older folks. If you buy in private market on your own, it could be more expensive and they can even reject you due to preexisting conditions

Even McCain wants to keep Obamacare for other people


I pay $1536/m plus $10k deductible
$28k/ year


It’s expensive. If you increase the deductible to really high amount, do you still get the insurer negotiated rate when you go to doctors and hospitals?

Hospitals charge a much higher rate than the insurance negotiated rate. Even when it is under deductible and you pay the bills, the amount would still be much lower if the claim goes through insurance. The difference could be 2-3 times.

Medical billing is done after the fact. It’s very hard to negotiate with so many doctors and hospitals on your own.


I sold one home this year, but finally my son agreed to buy a home. His studio at San Mateo increased rent from $2250 to $2500 for 500 sqft space. He is not getting any kind of condo within his area limits. My part is down payment as zero interest loan (for bank purpose it is a gift), extending limits to RWC, San Mateo…areas. Last year or start of this year, he could have got a condo at 525k level, but this year it is going crazy. He is just trying to match his rent parity.


Any poster saying what about people not losing their healthcare? He ought to leave his cave.


By the way, repeat after me, please, repeat after me…It is called Trumpcare. Remember, repeal and replace first day I am in the white house? :sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile:

Now, you know a forest by its trees, right? A liar is a liar and will always be.

I AM GOING TO TAKE CARE OF EVERYBODY, EVEN IF THAT COST ME VOTES…:sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile::sweat_smile:


A hospital can’t report you to a credit agency because they don’t have your SS number. They are not supposed to ask you for it and you do not have to give it to them. They will send you notices and harass you for it though. Here’s a good tip. Pay them a small amount monthly and soon (within one year) they will make you a settlement offer which will be reasonable for the cost of services actually provided. Pay them when you get it. It will not affect your credit score because they can’t report it without your SS number.

This will not work for insurance companies because they already have your SS number when you apply.


“Just 3% jump in home price means 30k which exceeds your current lease price”

Exactly the kind of thinking that can get dangerous… biased view of leverage. Remember it cuts both ways:

“Just 3% down in home price means -30k which is your whole rent for a year!”


It’s all about the time horizon. how many years do you plan to keep the house? If you want to keep it for 20 years, no need to over analyze the short term move. If you plan to keep it for a couple of years, you need to have a perfect timing


We have been seen the same argument since 2008 onwards. Many times, I was thinking prices are going to go down, but not seen except during crash.

IMO, if there is down, it will be 10% or 20% range, but can not really see 3% or 5% down except in median price. But, in real price, growth is slow and steady at 3% to 5% level.

Normally, in this bullish seller’s market, waiters are almost priced out. Any way, we will see in April 2018.


How many years have home prices fallen by 3% vs. increased by 3%? That’ll tell you which side the odds favor. If you could time the market perfectly, then you wouldn’t be asking. You’d be counting all your money.


Home price appreciation in the BA has far outpaced wage increases, etc, and has been supported by an influx of foreign money that has inflated returns. At some point, there is a limit to the average price of a home the average local family can afford (even if they are DINKs in the tech industry)

in other words, the days of 10/20/30% yearly increases may be gone, while the risk of a significant downturn may be higher (rates going up, tax plan, Chinese government cracking down on capital outflows, stock market at all time highs, etc)

as an exercise, if someone from the future told you that BA RE will appreciate at 3-6% a year for the next 20 years, even without any downturns at all, would you buy, sell or hold? would you mortgage yourself to do it? would you plunk $1.5M cash into a house?

it’s all about the expected rate of appreciation going forward. Therein lies the key… My gut feeling is that it will revert to the mean

PS. thank goodness I bought all those Bitcoins in 2010!!! :slight_smile: (yeah right)


If you’re talking investment property, then I agree. The discussion is different for a primary residence. People were making those same arguments in 2009 to 2013 too. The bears had tons of reasons to not buy and were laughing at people that bought.

Personally, I wouldn’t pay cash for a house until retired. The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is too cheap.




That is the nature of economic/asset cycles over long term. I do not think there is any formula to catch it at the exact right time. i.e. catch the low wave to ride high and dump at the top.

irrational exuberance if there is any, might continue for a while.
Btw, Greenspan used the term in 1996, stock market crashed in 2000.


Here is the true story of priced out.

I sold a home in Jan/Feb 2017 for X amount. We initially purchased that home in Dec 2015 for X-250k. At that time, I wanted to tear-down and build the home with 500k cash. I may need additional 200k for safety in case I run out of cash.

There were two proposals, one tear-down rebuild to live (My proposal)
Or move the home to my son’s name so that he gets the benefits (either primary or rental) as I felt getting such home at X-250k in 2015 is a bonus. My son, being novice, refused.

There were lot of resistance to build a home, all family members except me, as I am novice in building.

In order to make profitable, I just sold at X price, took profit 200k after expenses. I paid of some of rental homes to make full cash flow.

Now, when my son accepted to own a home, we were even thinking to buy exactly similar home,10k lot, bid so far 5-7 homes with same price X, all are failed as the home went off 100k-150k over what we sold.

Recently , we visited the sold home location and entire family, including my sons, stunned to see entire home was tear-down and the new buyer building a brand new home 4400 sqft single story home. The new buyer will sell this home 2.5M+ for sure and make a good profit appx 600k-700k.

I was telling all my family members that I could have made such an excellent home for appx 1.6M had we not sold it. It was my vision to make it.

This is a lesson to show how we are priced out by our own action ! I still made profit and made progress.

I do not want to provide any address or location, either my sold home or bid homes, but this is ground reality in bullish seller market.

Here is the current picture of 4400 sqft single story being built now.


I recognize this address :smile:


I would use the word might be instead of are.


We are already priced out by 100k-150k level. None of 7 offers succeeded. The last offer was here, we bid our sold price X+100k, we lost ! 30 offers received.


You’re giving this example to imply “that this will continue to happen”. What I’m saying is “that is not certain

What I’ve said is “these cycles” happen, and it’s impossible to predict consistently the tops and bottoms for most people(even for people who do this full time as a profession).