Stock Market Bubble?

Teens can take out 70K margin loans on Robinbood. Where the fuk are the regulators?

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Thought you said there is no systemic risk just few weeks ago.

You can apply online too. He didn’t know?

No worry, is not a systemic risk.

:rocket:

Salvador Vergara was so enthusiastic about GameStop Corp. in late January that he took out a $20,000 personal loan and used it to purchase shares. Then the buzzy stock plunged nearly 80%.

GameStop’s volatile ride is hitting the portfolios of individual investors like Mr. Vergara who purchased the stock in a social-media-fueled frenzy. These casual traders say GameStop was their “YOLO,” or “you only live once,” trade. They bought around its late January peak, betting it would continue its astronomical climb. While some cashed out before it crashed, others who hung onto their shares are in the red.

Mr. Vergara, a 25-year-old security guard in Virginia, started investing four years ago after deciding he wanted to retire young. To save money, he drives a 1998 Honda Civic, eats a lot of rice and lives with his dad. He stashed his savings mostly in diversified index funds, which are now valued at about $50,000. Then Mr. Vergara, a longtime reader of the WallStreetBets page on Reddit, saw others posting about buying GameStop shares and the stock’s colossal rise.

He didn’t want to touch his index-fund investments, so instead he got a personal loan with an 11.19% interest rate from a credit union and used it to fund most of his GameStop purchase. He bought shares at $234 each.

Interests rate back in the dot-com days:

Fed has been raising rates right before the bubble popped. Effective Fed Fund Rate went from the low of 4.63% in Jan 1999 to 6.53% in June 2000. Nasdaq peaked in March 2000 and the rest is history.

Will this create a bubble?

Citigroup Finds $900 Million Mistakes Are Hard to Undo

An interesting angle to look at current valuations. If you look at say Shopify’s market cap as a percentage of Amazon’s it doesn’t look pricey at all. You are effectively paying for a 10% probability that SHOP will one day be as big as AMZN.

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Market is pricing in rate hikes starting in 2023.

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Market is always? wrong or right?

Anyhoo, we know wave iii is in, but wave iv has not completed even though the low is probably in but … could do one more dip to QQQ ~325.

Market assess the situation continuously, one time post has not much value. Care to keep us posted whenever there is a change?

Jay-Z is involved with one. Shaquille O’Neal has one. Ciara Wilson sits on the board of one, as does Serena Williams.

Sports figures seem especially enthusiastic about them: Alex Rodriguez, Steph Curry and the activist and former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick — or should we say, “SPAC-ERNICK” — all have one. So does Billy Beane, the former Oakland A’s general manager and subject of the book and film “Moneyball.”

Wall Street is just 1ppt shy of ‘Sell” signal

Wall Street strategists continued to increase their recommended equity allocations in February. The Sell Side Indicator (SSI), which is the average recommended equity allocation by sell-side strategists, rose by nearly 1ppt to 59.2% from 58.4%. It’s the second month in a row of an almost 1ppt jump, bringing recommended equity allocation to almost a 10 year high and just 1.1ppt shy of a “Sell” signal. The last time the indicator was this close to “Sell” was June 2007 after which we generally saw 12-month returns of -13%. We’ve found Wall Street bullishness to be a reliable contrarian indicator.

@manch does this mean mortgage rate may go down again?

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Very interesting. Yeah, if the Fed succeeds in lowering the 10Y yield, mortgage rate will fall too.

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When the bubble bursts housing will go up even more

One SPAC I like right now is SRNGU. The same folks who brought in SKLZ and DKNG. Minimal downside since it just came out but upside could be big. Waiting game is what’s hard with SPACs.

Some redditor made 5mil bet. Yikes!

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Bot 100 SRNGU :slight_smile: since that guy bot $5M, mine is peanut.

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There might be something coming up with SRNGU but who knows.

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I couldn’t help it. I now have 10000 shares. :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

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