My ICE 4Runner is 14 years old. Barely broken in. The average ICE car in the US is 12 years old. But people are dumping their EVs after three years. What is environmentally friendly about that? There will still be a .5 billion ICE cars worldwide on the road in 2035. What is going to happen to them? 50 million cars a year being built. 99% are ICE. The transition will take so long that other smarter solutions to EV like hydrogen will become competitive. Hybrids make the most since for the next 20 years.
Last year, new vehicles represented 6.1 percent of vehicles on the road, but this year IHS Markit predicts that they will be around 5 percent of vehicles. While that isn’t necessarily good news for automakers, repair shops could benefit from more people holding onto their vehicles rather than replacing them, particularly in the case of vehicles now coming off of warranties.
5% new only per year. In 20 years only 5% new max per year cars will be electric. That means another 20 years till all electric or a huge cash for clunkers program.
My guess is the future reality will be more like Cuba. A depressed economy with a few new EVs and millions of 30-50 year old ICE clunkers.