Yes, I am aware of it. This is why I need self-assurance which comes in the way of fundamental research.
Simple: Good Companies (like GOOGL & AMZN), slightly not meeting revenue consensus, but exceptional earnings (EPS jump 20%+) priced down by investors, are the good to buy at DIP.
The above scenario gives margin of safety that the company is making progress and will eventually come up.
See how others played too (Someone posted this)
Lol
Worth $100,000 a share to Apple. Project Titan is going nowhere and there are no good AI/ML SWEs there. In addition, Elon should be made successor to TC.
Elon is technocrat, trying to take complex challenges and make it. He is not too good on running smooth companies like AAPL !
Musk needs to find his own TC for Tesla…
He already said that he will move out once TSLA is established. He will definitely move out when Space-X comes to challenging stage !
Maybe people should go back to Elon’s original plan, weigh the probability of its success, and assigns a future dollar value to each component.
Not too long ago the world’s biggest cap companies were oil companies. Maybe Tesla is what a future energy company looks like?
When Tesla Inc. shares briefly approached $1,000 in the midst of a manic surge last week, a host of experts and market watchers started scrambling to figure out what it would take for Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker to justify such a massive valuation.
After a big pullback last Wednesday, Tesla shares were up again on Monday, gaining as much as 9.6% to $819.99, on news that the company’s Shanghai plant has resumed production after delays caused by the coronavirus outbreak, and after a Forbes report explored the possibility of Google buying Tesla for as much as $1,500 a share. Tesla is up 88% so far in 2020.
Using a valuation model created by Aswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, there’s a way to reach $1,000 per share – though it would require sales at the electric car-maker to jump 10-fold from 2019’s full year figures.
Revenue would need to exceed $289 billion by 2030 from $24.48 billion last year, using a model that assumes growth persists for years at a 40% rate before slowing to 1.75% in 2026. Operating margin would also need to rise from 1.6% to 12% with a fixed tax rate at 25%. Current expectations on the Street estimate a far slower pace of sales expansion.
A sales explosion of that magnitude brings to mind Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s promise in 2017 that Model 3 production would ramp up in similar fashion. But while Tesla has shown the ability to mass produce the sedans, it can also be argued that the pace has been far from what Musk predicted.
There are other challenges as well. “The problem using a fixed growth rate off to the horizon is it assumes a company operates in a vacuum,” Roth Capital Partners analyst Craig Irwin said. Tesla eventually will face intense competition, which has been tepid so far, the analyst said, adding that the most important question is whether other carmakers catch up to Tesla within two years or ten.
“I think other carmakers will be aggressive in working to catch up,” Irwin said.
Has Aswath ever been right on any company? What was his target on Amazon again? 
and FB and others…
Having said that he is brave to put his reputation at stake by putting his thoughts in writing.
Lol, they literally just said the business was self-sustaining with no need to raise capital.
True and while they are it , they should’ve raised more…
I agree. Factories aren’t cheap, and they can’t scale without a lot more of them. They’ll need 20 to achieve enough manufacturing volume to justify the current valuation. That’s $50-100B of investment. There’s no way they are going to generate enough cash flow from operations to fund that. There’s way more dilution ahead.
Huge con job leverage.
Musk himself will buy as much as $10 million of stock in the offering, while Tesla board member Larry Ellison will purchase up to $1 million.
$11 million to lure $2.3B cash.
The best time to raise cash is when your share is extremely over-valued.
If Tesla is getting 100M for its Berlin factory, how much is Elon getting for its Austin one?
Tesla market cap is 145B today. 2B stock offering is only 1.4% of its cap. It’s like the stock went down 1.4% for one day and hardly anyone will notice. But so far it’s up 4% today.
Even if it doesn’t have any need for capital, Tesla should raise more, just because it can.
Almost identical layout as mine.
