Tesla’s trillion dollar valuation is fast approaching

Without external parties involvement, if you do fundamental study and create a DCF, you will understand. No way to understand otherwise !

This is what big banks/funds pay $250k salary to their private analysts for such work.

You might be right. Next time, I inform you to do a FA/ DCF :slight_smile:

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Italics => They are big banks valuation (normally 20+ years), buy at low and hold for years. There are plenty of data and analysis by the banks/funds analysts to do all valuation calculations.

In addition, most of the banks value higher for follow-on commission purposes. Since TSLA needs lot of money, billions, they promote the working horse and get paid by huge commissions on 5B follow-on every quarters. If they need to drop the value, any time they can sell and downgrade. Big banks has both flexibility and power for that.

At this point, it’s a stock that requires investors to have complete faith in Elon Musk’s vision, rather being judged by its business fundamentals.

:+1:

I look at it this way. What made amazon such a huge stock is all the businesses that are under the umbrella. It’s also how Amazon has been able to maintain the revenue growth year after year. Imagine if AWS was a separate startup run by Bezos. Imagine if the kindle and echo products were a separate business, etc. The amazon online retail business would be FAR less appealing to own as a stock without all the other items. Tesla is like buying amazon retail where you don’t get a part of all the other stuff Elon is doing.

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No way!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/business/car-sales-coronavirus/index.html

Many people are not at buying cars and two car owners grounding one car or even selling as they do not travel more than 25 miles in a week.

Covid-19 completely impacted car sales.

Old articles. Check again.

TSLA car sales in China in 2020

$2500 :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

@Jil

150% appreciation for two technical events,

.Stock split
.Inclusion into S&P

make sense?

First, TSLA was attractive since the day one. They had biggest booking 400000+ when it was announced, beyond everyone’s expectation in Apr 2016. The stock was low as no one knew the profit margin at that time. China was second to USA on order booking at that time too and continues till date.

Demand for Tesla is there first day onwards and will continue even after Pandemic ends.

Next subject is: Car sales between 2019 and 2020 - (not about Tesla)

Regarding car sales, first two qtrs are down and third qtr better than first 2 qtrs

All qtrs (1,2,3) in 2020 are lower than 2019 (1,2,3) - year over year comparison.

My job is EVs, solar and power grid intersection, and you are totally right. Newsom’s 100% EVs by 2035 is going to be a ridiculous amount of work on the power grid and its easy for politicians to make such sweeping mandates without thinking of second order impacts. That being said, I am a bleeding heart liberal Nazi, so I am excited to work on the issue, more just saying you are right. :slight_smile:

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Instead of mandatory EVs government needs a crash program in electrical energy production. Wind, Solar, battery storage, nuclear, natural gas, wave power, geothermal, energy from outer space beamed to earth, hydroelectric. To reject any source that reduces global warming in hypocritical. In fact the anti nukes crowd is a major cause of global warming. Law of unintended circumstances of letting political whims control science.

honestly, not even that (though that would be nice for my job security). what they need is to change the rules to incentize low/no carbon resources. market has the technology (i am steeped in) its just that the incentives due to regulatory rules are jacked up so that utilities will actually lose money bringing in solar/low carbonn resources in the current paradigm. So even “easier” but a lot “harder” given the politics of public utility commissions.

@Jil

Do you notice the initial reaction of consumers to Covid and after Jun is drastically different?

Housing - Drop initially, after Jun SFH boom!
Auto - Drop initially, after Jun car (used and new) sales boom!

Is the job of a shrewd investor to recognize such psychological behavior before everyone else. Buy SFHs and auto stocks on the cheap upon the Covid strike, and see your well-timed purchase rocket! after Jun. If you can do that, no need any TA or EWT or FA :slight_smile:

Primary degree EW count of TSLA is straightforward (guess is because of plenty of retail investors). How high would wave 5 go? Want to try out your EW skill?
.

The problem is PGE and their legacy debt. They should be bankrupt and divided among low cost providers like Liberty in Nevada and Tahoe where rates are half price. Hooking up your solar panels to PGE is a regulatory nightmare and the end results will be disappointing and a moving target. Best to go off grid. Still too expensive due to battery and generator costs.

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how would you dispose of all of PGE stranded assets? leave investors holding the bag?

also managing a grid is not easy. especially urban/suburban ones with high amounts of EV/Solar and demand. Imagine if SF county/city government managed their grid like they manage their city :joy: :joy:? It would truly be a 3rd world country then, with rolling brownouts and blackouts.

See YOY decrease in cars sales

Covid-19 brought WFH policies that resulted unexpected housing boom as people are getting permanent WFH. They left big cities and moving to outskirts to buy home at low price.

But, car sales never improved year over year basis (2019 and 2020), even though first 2 qtrs dipped, third quarter increased based on 2nd qtr way low dip. That is all.

Many friends did not buy another car last one year. Many friends grounded 2nd car permanently. Many friends stopped sending kids for day care (as they can save money). No need of additional car spouse to drive to school or day care…etc. Many companies are resorting to WFH policy permanently.

All these results car sales year over year dip was 9%-11% level.

Toyota’s sales fell 11 percent in the third quarter year over year after having a strong month of September, where sales were up 16.2 percent.

Read completely here (YOY down) Oct 2, 2020

Source

Having doubt about FA ability :face_with_hand_over_mouth:
Don’t think you understand how Mr Market reacts to data :slight_smile:

This info has zero value.

Can stop wasting time in car and TSLA analysis since both of us are not interested in investing anyway. Too academic for me.

I feel you loaded with good amount of calls or TSLA stocks !

This info has zero value => You do not want to accept defeat, that is all. WFH policy results car sales volume drop ! I have provided enough data how car companies are struggling (except TSLA).

Don’t think you understand how Mr Market reacts to data => IMHO, it is you do not understand that part. Read “Margin of safety” book, why market reacts to TSLA !

Car sales dropped by covid-19.

Share price of TM is higher than pre-Covid.


.
Share price of GM is higher than pre-Covid.
.

.
Cut n paste from article linked in earlier post.
.

Used car sales


Used car dealers listed on market.
… 10x from low in Mar.

. 3x from low in Mar

.
.

Enough evidence?

I worked for PGE 40 years ago. Truly a bureaucratic nightmare whose bad behavior has been continuously allowed by the PUC. San Francisco, Palo Alto and Sacramento have their own energy companies. SMUD actually does a great good keeping costs down. PGE has been an abomination since the 60s. Responsible for many deaths in San Bruno and Paradise. They deserve no defense. You work there? The investors can been given shares in the purchasing companies… if there is any value left. I believe the stock should be valued at zero.