They do not have dealer, neither major marketing or advertisement cost. All these are known facts many years and priced inside the current price. Market is very calculative with all these data using proprietary software.
Not really with current state of TSLA, we are even seeing in real estate. Market mis-priced TSLA when Elon was begging investors for $420. Those days are gone now.
There are multiple factors involved as I say here=>
As soon as results are declared, many analysts would have keyed in all data (including the whatever conference call points) and come up with new valuation.
They would have bulk loaded buy/sell orders already since morning and confirm/cancel the orders after reviewing results. Rarely mis-pricing happens (still happens) when someone handles bulk orders…etc.
US market is very sensitive for many variables, like they said buyback or lay off …etc
This is not debatable as it’s already a fact. Tesla’s revenue grew by 55% and earnings almost 100% last quarter. Yet its stock tanked after hours. So your assumption of the 50% growth to prevent stock from tanking already proven false.
Shouldn’t that be a buying opportunity for you if it dipped below $200? You have missed the boat so many times maybe this time you can finally make it right. You analyzed this stock so much it’s a pity that you are not able to derive incredible wealth from owning it.
My knowledge wont’ go waste, it will help me in future.
No doubt about it. TSLA is well established company and it is not for me, but for those who wants to have buy & hold. When there is a dip, investors can DCA, every $10 is a DCA point below $200, so that they land in stable company.
I am not against hanera or others buying TSLA, but when there are plenty of opportunities are coming soon, why did they hurry to catch the falling knife ! I was trying to educate them what are the ways to look at a company (not single factor, but many factors to analyze)
If they properly research a company, with little more caution, the investors CAGR increases when they buy at deep discount level.
Here is the reason why not TSLA for me ? Because of my mom & pop algorithm ! My gain is my destiny.
When I bet for 2030 destiny, you were thinking that I use mom & pop algorithm to bet. True, it is my own individual creation, but the initial amount I invested for that 2030 challenge is $10000 only ( with TQQQ/SOXL and Options). With that initial investment of $10k, Roth IRA, I just want to see how much I cross by 2030. My simulation said that I will cross in 4.5 years, but I set 8 years to see whether I am able to cross that level. If I lose entire amount it is 10k, but if I gain it is my destiny ! It is a challenge not against you, but stress testing goal for me and my own creation how much I can scale ! I need a goal and that is your level !
Rest of my bulk investments will be in safe QQQ & SMH kind of non-leveraged ETFs, still may use my algorithm but not aggressive mode!
All are in retirement accounts, no tax implications in future.
For 10k Challenge, it is not about my satisfaction, but to see how much I can stretch and how many times I can make a perfect judgement. Options are very high risk, next is leveraged index ETFs (Max CAGR simulation tells 450%), next is normal index ETF (max possible simulation is 85%). This is too high bar, but my goal is to cross 50% level. This is not easy, but I an challenging myself to have higher reliability.
This is super challenging to do this consistently – one wrong trade can put you back where you started. Hope your algorithm limits losses and maximizes gain per each decision point. Good luck!
This will not happen to me with the kind of reliability I have. If it is a wrong move, it will eat away my CAGR mainly and may miss the boat. If I make a mistake of buying QQQ/SMH ahead, I hold/dca until I get some profit. For example, recent dip and jump, S&P jumped 3.27%, but I missed the boat half way and my jump is 1.59%. This is buy low and sell high with QQQ/SMH etc.
I have set of safe rules to comply that will help me.
$10k is such a small amount that even if you can achieve incredible gain with your algorithm, it’s just play money that won’t be life-changing. If you have a high conviction with your work, you should invest heavy into it. I’d say at least $1 million.
Safety is when you have a lot of asset already and you want to preserve what you have. You look like you want to do wealth generation with your algorithm, so what you need is conviction and risk-taking. You will not generate much wealth if safety is your priority.
Ha ha ha! I am like hanera, well planned & settled, no change of course! I do not need any wealth generation as I know my limits, skillset and power of what I can do.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Whatever way you entice, it will not work with me ! Try your level best !!
Okay … Okay … No more question and answer about my algorithm…Period now.
Spend so much time, only $10k. Might as well just throw dices to decide buy or sell. Should be all-in, all you got in IRA. $10k, no need for any analysis, spending $10k should be just an impulse decision.
Yes growth is priced into stock price, but not as much as @Jil imagines.
Currently annualized PE (based on Q3) is right around 50.
When earnings grow at say 50%, in one year PE ratio would be 35. In two years (with flat stock price), PE ratio would be 20.
A PE of 20 means very low growth expected (below NASDAQ average) in 2 years.
So either the market is valuing Tesla to grow 50% (as Tesla states) for 2 years and then no growth (unlikely), or the market is valuing Tesla to grow say 30% YoY which then extends out the number of years that is expected (more likely).
Either way, this means if you do believe Tesla will grow 50%, then the stock price will go up from current price in a year. In fact, in order to maintain the same outlook as today 1 year from now (in terms of future growth expectations), the stock price will likely go up 50%.
Suggesting that the stock price is actually overvalued is silly unless you think Tesla’s profits will suddenly grow less than say 20% YoY.
No need for FA, TA and algorithm. No adjustment needed, just sit.
decision.
